Q4 export growth at only 9.7%: TNSC

Despite the impressive performance achieved in the first three quarters, full-year growth in volume will be only 11.9 per cent and value 16.4 per cent because of the poor results in the current quarter, the council said.
The repercussions are expected to continue through the first half of next year, it added.
“Though the actual damage cannot [yet] be assessed, initially it should amount to Bt300 billion: Bt120 billion to households and Bt180 billion to the manufacturing sector caused by supply chain and logistics disruption,” the TNSC said in a statement.
To prevent business relocation, the government is urged to take the lead in restoring investor confidence and rehabilitating the manufacturing sector for a fast recovery. The TNSC expects this rehabilitation effort to cost at least Bt180 billion.

Impacts on export
- Thailand's 2011 export value would expand only 9.7 per cent, due to a sharp drop in fourth quarter
quarter/volume/value
2011
Q1/17.7/22.7
Q2/8.7/14.3
Q3/14.8/18.9
Q4 /6.6/9.7
annual/11.9/16.4
2012
Q1/4.7/7.9
Q2/4.4/7.6
Source: Thai National Shippers' Council

The council proposes tax and financial measures to help factories hit by the flooding. Import duties should be waived for new machinery, equipment, parts and raw materials, while corporate taxes paid for this year should be returned and affected companies should be able to deduct corporate tax at three times the value of damage and repairs.
On financial measures, it asks for three-year soft loans, lower interest rates, a cut in insurance fees, a waiver of licensing fees and a six-month waiving of utility fees.
The government is also urged to delay the minimum-wage hike by two years or, in the absence of such a postponement, shoulder the extra cost for business operators. The government should bear at least 75 per cent of additional labour costs for six months, the council said.
The TNSC expects the automotive, food and food-related, electronics/electrical appliances and plastic-parts sectors to be hit the hardest by the flooding.
As a large number of factories are inundated, about 350,000 workers will be temporarily out of a job. Factories in dry areas will also suffer from supply-chain disruption, while logistics disruption will delay exports.
Air transport costs 10 times as much as sea transport, the council added.
“The impacts are likely to remain for three to six months, before the [export] sector resumes normal operations. This will affect the fourth-quarter export figures and the impact will continue until the first quarter of 2012, as clients will shift orders to manufacturers in other countries,” it said.