Bt20.8-bn loss feared for listed firms in Q4

The construction-materials sector could sustain losses of Bt4.76 billion and the property sector Bt3.32 billion, ASP Research said.
They would be followed by transport with a net loss of Bt2.63 billion, automobiles at Bt1.82 billion, electronic parts at Bt1.53 billion and steel with a net loss of Bt1.11 billion.
The contractor sector is expected to show a net loss of Bt905 million and the retailing sector Bt463 million.
The research house estimates that corporate earnings will drop by 2 per cent next year if the planned corporate-tax reduction is postponed to the following year.
Listed companies’ 2013 earnings per share on the Stock Exchange of Thailand are now projected at Bt93.1, down from the previous estimate of Bt95. Based on this estimate, the SET Index will trade at an expected price-to-earnings (p/e) ratio of 11.3 times in 2011 and 10.3 times in 2012.
Thanachart Securities said in a research note that next year, only domestic consumption could drive growth, as exports would likely slow down.
In the first quarter of 2012, rehabilitation after the flood is likely to support the economy, but not sustainably.
The government’s populist policies are also not expected to help the economy during the crisis because the flooding has taken a heavy toll on its revenues. Listed companies’ earnings are projected to grow only 8 per cent in 2012 compared with 45 per cent in 2009, 36 per cent in 2010 and an |estimated 23 per cent in |2011.
The SET has shown high performance over two years, and that has raised its p/e ratio close to its regional peers. Its downside risk from the downward revision of corporate earnings has just started, so it is likely that the outperforming round of the Thai stock market has ended.
Because of uncertainties in the global economy, the SET Index is targeted at 850 points in 2012, based on a p/e of 10 times or between the 10-year average of 12 to 8 times during a crisis.