Disater may cost 10.5% of GDP, FTI warns

Many industries affected indirectly by the flooding yesterday voiced the requirements they want the government to fulfil right away to reduce the impact from the loss of business opportunities. The tourism industry, for example, has asked the government to set up a fund for small and medium-sized enterprises so tourism operators can access working capital.
The FTI’s estimate contrasts with the assessment of the National Economic and Social Development Board, which calculates the damage at Bt248 billion, or 2.32 per cent of GDP.
Tanit said about 9,800 factories and 660,000 workers in eight flood-hit provinces had been affected, of which 838 plants are in the seven inundated industrial estates, so the damage to industry could be as high as Bt474 billion.
The automobile industry was hit the hardest, as about 300,000 vehicles will not be supplied, while the revenue loss is expected at Bt180 billion.

ARRIVALS DOWN
Reflecting the impact on the auto and electronics industries, exports in October grew only 0.3 per cent year on year, the lowest in two years. Exports this quarter are expected to drop by Bt148.41 billion or 10 per cent from the same quarter last year.
Tourism is another industry that has been hit by the flood disaster but in an indirect way. This industry is predicted to lose Bt70 billion in revenue.
The FTI anticipates economic growth of 1.5-1.8 per cent for the whole year, while growth of the final quarter alone is expected at 0-0.5 per cent, Tanit said.
Thanet Vorasarun, a representative of the tourism industry in the FTI, said foreign arrivals this year were estimated to drop to 18.5 million from the previous forecast of 19.5 million. About 90 per cent of all tourists are foreigners, and tourism in Bangkok contributes the largest proportion of revenue in the industry.
“Some parts of Bangkok are still dry and safe for travel. Revenue from the tourism industry can help boost the economy amid this current situation. So, we want the government to promote the tourism industry and boost the confidence of foreign travellers,” he said.
The tourism industry would like the government to set up a fund worth Bt5 billion for lending. About 80-90 per cent of this industry is SMEs and the lack of liquidity is their concern.
“The tourism industry does not need infrastructure repair or reconstruction. It just needs the government to help restore the confidence of foreign investors,” he said.