8% drop seen in Q4 oil consumption
Kasikorn Research Centre estimates oil demand in the fourth quarter will drop by 8 per cent year on year due to the flooding.
Many vehicles have been damaged by water or parked unused until the flooding subsides, hitting demand for fuel in Bangkok and its peripheral cities hard.
The centre estimated demand for oil nationwide would drop by 3.3 per cent compared with the third quarter of this year, while demand for oil in Bangkok and nearby provinces would drop between 10 per cent and 15 per cent.
After plunging in October, demand is expected to return to near normal levels in December, as drainage of industrial parks has begun, the center said.
A total of 402 petrol stations were closed between September 19 and November 22, causing sales to drop by an estimated 4 million litres per day. So far 166 have reopened, said the research centre.
Of the Greater Bangkok’s total of approximately 4 million cars, an estimated 200,000 to 300,000 have been forced to park to avoid inundation. In the month for which they have been out of use, these cars would typically consume about 30-45 million litres of fuel.
About 20,000 to 30,000 water-damaged cars have been out of use, lowering fuel consumption by an estimated to be 0.1 to 0.15 million litres per day.
A decline in car sales as consumers delay decisions to buy has also reduced oil consumption. Car sales in the fourth quarter are estimated at 125,00 to 155,000, down from 238,957 in the third quarter.
Disruptions to manufacturing, trade and tourism have also significantly adversely affected energy consumption, according to Kasikorn Research.
Oil consumption in the first nine months of this year was 72.7 million litres per day, up 2.7 per cent year on year, comprising 52.5 million litres of diesel and 20.2 million litres of petrol per day.
The research centre estimated oil consumption in the fourth quarter at 67.2 million litres per day.
Oil demand next year is expected to be an average of 73 to 74 million litres per day, up from 71.3 million litres per day this year, due to higher economic growth next year, as gross domestic product is expected to expand 3.5 to 4.8 per cent.
