Survey finds brokers worry most about euro crisis, politics at home
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The Securities Analysts Association has found concern among brokerages that political factors will be an important variable affecting the Stock Exchange of Thailand, but the brokers predict that the bourse's main index will exceed 1,000 points in the new
A survey by the SAA of 19 brokers showed that they were most concerned about the European Union debt crisis, followed by political uncertainty and the effects of the flood disaster. These would directly affect the SET Index in 2012.
However, they also foresee positive factors, including the reduction of the corporate income-tax rate from 30 per cent to 23 per cent next year and to 20 per cent in 2013.
As a result, they predict that the SET Index should reach an average of 1,130 points, up by 10 per cent.
However, the index will fluctuate considerably, with the peak level at 1,186 points and the lowest level 894.
Sombat Narawutthichai, secretary-general of the SAA, said that on average, the brokers forecast that gross domestic product would grow by 1.4 per cent this year and 4.5 per cent next year.
Moreover, listed companies’ earnings per share were projected to grow by about 15 per cent this year, followed by 11.6 per cent next year.
“The survey result was not as projected, as it was thought that the flood would be the second-most-important factor, but they are more worried about political uncertainty, particularly constitutional amendments and the amnesty law, as well as the return of former Thai Rak Thai executives,” Sombat said.
High and low
Kiatnakin Securities forecast that the SET Index would reach 1,264 points next year, while Thanachart Securities said the lowest level should be 850 points.
On average, the 19 brokers surveyed predicted that total trade value would reach an average of Bt29 billion per day, of which Bt14.1 billion would come under foreign investors’ control.
Their average estimates for the gold price were Bt24,088 per baht weight (15.24 grams) this year and Bt26,868 next year.
Thailand will face a stronger baht, with the average of the brokers’ assessments 30.8 against the US dollar next year compared with 31.2 of this year. Moreover, the policy rate would increase from 2.9 per cent this year to 3.3 per cent next year, while inflation would decline from the 3.7 per cent predicted for this year to 3.5 per cent.
Best performers
Businesses that the brokers predicted would see high growth in earnings per share included shippers at 325 per cent, followed by property at 28 per cent. Compared with this year, the hotel sector is forecast to surge by 234 per cent, petrochemicals by 96 per cent.
The groups that will pay the highest dividends include telecommunication at an average of 7.3 per cent, electronics at 5.15 per cent and construction materials at 4.7 per cent, according to an average of the 19 brokers’ projections.
