Big dip likely in Q4 exports to China
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Thailand's exports to China in the final quarter of this year are expected to show a substantial decline from the 62.8-per-cent year-on-year growth achieved in the third quarter, because of a high base from last year and more lacklustre demand in China am
The shortfall in exports to China has also been exacerbated by the recent flooding in Thailand that inhibited manufacturing output.
Given this, exports to China in 2011 will probably grow only 27-30 per cent, down from the 33.2-per-cent growth recorded in 2010. Likewise, Thai imports from China may decelerate to just 28-per-cent growth, versus the 42.3 per cent seen in 2010. As a result, Thailand will continue to sustain a trade deficit with China of perhaps US$3 billion (Bt95 billion) this year.
In 2012, bilateral trade between Thailand and China will face several challenges. KResearch expects a more modest growth rate of 15 per cent or less, in line with the slowing Chinese economy.
