Jan figures confirm recovery
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Economic indicators for last month suggest the economy is recovering after a sharp contraction in the fourth quarter of last year, said Boonchai Charassaengsomboon, deputy spokesman at the Fiscal Policy Office.
The dollar value of exports last month expanded 1.2 per cent from December, he said.
Gross domestic product contracted by 9 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2011.
The Customs Department reported a preliminary export figure of US$16.9 billion (Bt515.11 billion) in January. Imports were $17.6 billion, down 0.2 per cent from a month earlier.
“The [overall economic] recovery continued after figures began to improve in December,” he said.
Consumption also showed signs of recovery, as collection of value-added tax (VAT) in January increased 6 per cent year on year. Sales of passenger cars contracted by 9.8 per cent, improving over a sharp contraction of 28.1 per cent in December.
Investment also recovered as sales of commercial vehicles rose by a sharp 29.1 per cent, in contrast with a contraction of 46.9 per cent in December. Pickup trucks were popular among buyers.
The Manufacturing Production Index last month shrank by 15.1 per cent, better than the contraction of 25.2 per cent in December. Tourist arrivals last month rose 7.7 per cent to 1.94 million, indicating a recovery in the service sector.
The housing sector has yet to recover, however, as home-buyers are waiting for government measures to prevent another flood disaster. This resulted in muted sales, as January collections of property-transaction tax decreased by 15.3 per cent year on year compared with an expansion of 10.7 per cent in December.
One issue of concern was the real incomes of farmers, which contracted by 15.1 per cent last month because of lower prices of rubber and cassava roots. This might adversely affect consumption, Boonchai said.
Crude-oil prices are rising because of tensions between Iran and the West, but Boonchai said the Dubai average oil price had not yet gone beyond the projection of $116 per barrel. However, if prices hit $150, as some analysts predict, it would have a negative impact on the economy, he said.
The country ran a trade deficit of $620 million in January, the fourth month in a row to see a deficit. The deficit is considered small, however, he said. The economy is expected to expand this quarter after a sharp decline in the final quarter of last year due to the flood disaster, Boonchai said.
