SET to rise 138 points this year: survey

A new survey shows analysts envision a 138-point rise in the index in the June-December period over January’s level, the Securities Analysts Association (SAA) announced yesterday.
Sombat Narawuttichai, SAA secretary-general, said positive factors for the Thai economy for the remainder of this year include government measures, the recovery of domestic consumption and reductions in the corporate income tax to 23 per cent and 20 per cent in 2012 and 2013 respectively. All of these would mitigate the effect of the mayhem in the euro zone, Sombat said.
“Finansia Syrus securities, Kasikorn securities and CIMB securities estimate a highest index level of 1,350 points and Kiatnakin securities estimates a lowest index level of 940 points for this year,” he said.
The surveyed analysts estimated gross domestic product (GDP) growth to be 5.3 per cent this year, up from 4.1 per cent in the previous survey, with the economy expected to expand 4.8 per cent next year. The consumer price index (CPI) will grow 3.5 per cent and 3.4 per cent in 2012 and 2013, respectively, the survey predicted, while average earnings per share (EPS) growth would be a high 21.5 per cent this year and 13.9 per cent in 2013.
The sectors with the highest EPS growth in 2012 would be electronic components (164.32 per cent), food (37.95 per cent) and technology (30.75 per cent). Shipping (32.67 per cent), construction materials (24.37 per cent) and hotels (20.09 per cent) would take the top three spots next year, according to those surveyed.
The three highest sectors by dividend yield sector this year will be technology (6.17 per cent), electronic components (5.55 per cent) and petrochemicals (4.97 per cent), while electronic components (6.54 per cent), technology (6.19 per cent) and petrochemicals (5.65 per cent) would claim 2013’s top three spots, the survey said.
The analysts expected the SET to see net buying in June-December 2012 of Bt48.28 billion, including Bt28.31 billion from foreign investment and Bt17.32 billion from institutional investors and Bt2.64 billion from the securities.
Moreover, the surveyed analysts recommended the government control the prices of some foods, keep the interest rate at 3 per cent all year and decrease personal income tax. ; urging expenditure for people who has salary not over Bt15, 000 or Bt300 per day.
Sombat said the latest survey indicates a better-than-expected view of the Thai economy. The analysts expect that the European debt crisis would relieved somewhat by the Greek election tomorrowSunday, while the Thai political conflict would not have a big effect. Nor would massive flooding occur again, the analysts said.
The analysts recommend investing in common stock or domestic equity funds for 46 per cent of portfolio, bonds or bond funds for 16 per cent, cash and deposit 13 per cent, gold and gold futures 12 per cent, shares or foreign equity funds 10 per cent, and others 3 per cent. Investors should gradually buy new shares, study information before making investments and have sure targets in mind, they said.
ADVANCE, CPF, INTUCH, KBANK, PTT and SCB were suggested by the analysts. Some also said that share prices in the construction and electronics sector are overvalued or at their peak levels.