India, Vietnam face snags in quest to USURP
Thailand may not lose its status as the world's largest rice exporter after all, as shipments could reach 7.5 million tonnes this year, about the same as its export-champ rivals India and Vietnam, according to the Commerce Ministry and exporters.
After a meeting of the subcommittee on rice policy and marketing, the ministry and exporters agreed that total rice exports this year could exceed the latter’s previous forecast of 6.5 million tonnes, as India and Vietnam have begun to face export difficulties. However, the new expectation of 7.5 million tonnes is still lower than the government’s earlier projection of 8 million to 8.5 million tonnes, which it said it would achieve through government-to-government contracts.
The revised expectation of 7.5 million tonnes is based on shipment by private exporters combined with the G2G contracts, which will ship about 1.8 million tonnes of rice this year out of the total contracted volume of 7.32 million tonnes.
As of October 9, Vietnam ranked as the world’s largest rice exporter at 5.9 million tonnes, valued at US$2.45 billion (Bt75.2 billion). India was second with export volume of 5.6 million tonnes worth $2.29 billion, following by Thailand with 5.2 million tonnes worth $3.5 billion.
Tikhumporn Natvaratat, deputy director-general of the ministry’s Foreign Trade Department, said the government and exporters had agreed on tighter cooperation to promote rice export during the rest of the year.
He explained that India was now facing export difficulties due to port congestion, while Vietnamese rice production was falling because of drought.
“These two export rivals may not be able to export as much as previous expected and will not be able to beat Thailand easily to become the world’s biggest rice exporters this year,” Tikhumporn said.
He added that in terms of export value, Thailand would still be the world’s leading exporter because the value of Thai rice export is much higher than Vietnam’s, by 30 per cent, and India’s by 14.6 per cent.
The price of Thai 5-per-cent white rice is $570 a tonne, while Indian rice is $460 and Vietnam’s $490.
Thailand is expected to export about 8.5 million tonnes of rice next year, including the remaining contracted G2G delivery of 5 million tonnes.
Korbsook Iamsuri, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said the country might be able to export more than 7 million tonnes of rice this year because India is facing shipment delays.
She said this could be the first year that Thailand, Vietnam and India became the world’s biggest rice exporters jointly, with the same export volume of 7 million tonnes.
However, Thai rice-export volume is still expected to suffer a drop by 30 per cent from last year, while volume until October dropped by 42 per cent year on year.
To promote export growth, Korbsook said the government needed to release rice from its stockpiles to support shipments in the remaining months as most rice production is in the government’s warehouses.
She added that to ensure stronger Thai rice export, the government needed to stabilise the price and not set it too high.
