Commerce expected to downgrade export target next quarter

“Thai shipments should recover to positive growth in June due to the depreciation of the baht. However, the ministry needs to closely monitor global economic growth and the Kingdom’s GDP growth this year as Thai shipments could be seriously hit from the slowing down of economic growth in many countries,” permanent-secretary Vatchari Vimooktayon said yesterday.
In baht terms, exports declined by 11.73 per cent to Bt565.8 billion in May from the same month last year.
The plunge was largely due to the slowing global economy and the rise in the baht to an average of Bt28.53 against the US dollar.
Earlier this year, the ministry projected exports to grow by 8-9 per cent. However it has revised the 2013 target down to 7-7.5-per-cent growth in exports to Bt245.54 billion-Bt246.73 billion due mainly to the baht’s strength.
Exports in the first five months rose slightly by 1.86 per cent to $94.2 billion, or dropped 2.72 per cent to Bt2.77 trillion.
If the baht continues to lose value in the remaining months, exports could achieve the target of 7-7.5 per cent this year.
But if the baht starts appreciating again while many major export markets, such as China, the United States and Japan, are struggling, shipments could be revised down again.
Exports to major markets dropped 8.8 per cent last month. The EU was down by 12.1 per cent, the US by 6.9 per cent and Japan by 7.6 per cent. Shipments to China fell last month by 16.3 per cent and to Asean by 1.2 per cent.
Asean’s markets were hit by declining demand in their trade partners outside the region.
Exports of many agriculture products shrank last month, especially shrimp, as supply has been decimated by disease. Shrimp exports in May dived by 38.6 per cent to $168 million, while shipments in the first five months declined 24.2 per cent year on year.
Rice exports in May dropped by 26 per cent in value to $375 million and by 32.9 per cent in volume to 256,856 tonnes. Total rice shipments in the first five months slipped by 3.8 per cent to $1.79 billion or decreased by 4.1 per cent to 2.66 million tonnes.
Imports in May receded 2.1 per cent to US$22.13 billion on year, or decreased 8.76 per cent to Bt639.91 billion.
In the first five months, imports gained 5.7 per cent to $108.06 billion, or 1.15 per cent to Bt3.22 trillion.
The trade deficit of $2.3 billion in May took the deficit in the first five months to $13.85 billion.