Stable crude prices seen next year, barring unrest in producing nations
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The price for global crude oil is expected to average US$107-$108 per barrel next year, while consumption is estimated to increase 2 per cent compared to 1.5 per cent this year.
Crude oil consumption next year is projected to be 89.90 million barrels per day, compared to 88 million-89 million this year. Production capacity next year is estimated at 90 million barrels per day, indicating that production will surpass demand.
That suggests that the crude oil price next year would be close to this year unless there is unrest in the oil producing countries, Yodphot Wongrukmit, senior executive vice president for marketing at Bangchak Petroleum, said yesterday.
The crude oil price next quarter is expected to be $107-$108 per barrel. The political unrest in Egypt, if not exacerbated, is unlikely to impact severely on the oil price.
The US economy next year is not expected to show significant growth, while the eurozone is unlikely to improve. From this scenario, the Asian countries – China, India and Asean – would be the engine driving global economic growth.
Ruengsak Thitiratsakul, deputy director of the Petroleum Institute of Thailand, said that among the factors prompting the rise in oil price are the political unrest in Egypt and the eurozone economic situation.
Much of oil exports has to pass through the Suez Canal next to Egypt, which raises the risk of oil transportation. The eurozone economic situation has yet to show signs of recovery.
The situation in Egypt would be a key factor for the direction of the oil price. If the situation can be contained, global crude oil is expected to range between $100 and $110 per barrel.
