Farm GDP growth forecast cut to 1.5-2.5% on outbreak of shrimp disease, crop damages

Apichart Jongskul, the OAE’s secretary-general, said that in the first half of this year, the shrimp supply fell by 40 per cent from normal production because of early mortality syndrome (EMS), while major crops have suffered damage from drought in many areas since last year. These factors prompted the office to lower its estimate for agricultural GDP growth from its March forecast of 3.5-4 per cent.

While natural disasters and epidemics pose risks to 2013 growth, concern over an economic slowdown in China plague the long-term outlook for Thailand’s agricultural sector. 

Apichart said the OAE would closely monitor signs of a slowdown in China, Thailand’s major export destination for several agricultural products.

“The whole of 2013 could see an increase in the supply of several crops, given price incentives that have caused farmers to expand their [cultivation] areas. Livestock could also see a rise thanks to more efficient production and rising demand in the country and abroad. However, fisheries are expected to see slowing growth due to EMS and weather fluctuations in the first half of the year,” Apichart said.

Despite drought in some areas early this year, GDP growth in crops is forecast at 3.3-4.3 per cent in 2013 thanks to increases in the supply of most crops, most importantly rice, tapioca, sugar cane, rubber and oil palm. 

Livestock GDP is anticipated to expand by 1.9-2.9 per cent this year on the back of improvements in livestock production systems and rising demand. 

The agriculture sector is expected to see its GDP grow by 1.1-2.1 per cent because of expansion in major crops’ cultivation areas. Forestry-sector GDP is expected to rise 0.5-1.5 per cent because of high local and overseas demand for forestry products, particularly eucalyptus wood, sealing wax and natural honey in the latter half of 2013.

However, fisheries are expected to see a contraction of 5.5-6.5 per cent in GDP due to weather fluctuations and EMS in the East and South, the major shrimp-production areas. The disease situation is expected to ease in the current second half as remedial steps taken by authorities begin to show results. 

In the first half, Thailand’s agriculture-sector GDP expanded 0.4 per cent, after a drought from late 2012 to May 2013 that caused damage to crops in widespread areas, a decrease in the shrimp supply as a result of EMS, and a decline in the aquatic-animal population due to weather fluctuations.