SET may gain after US attack
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The Stock Exchange of Thailand and other bourses may advance, not retreat, if the United States launches an attack against Syria without the United Nations' support, as suggested by what happened a decade ago, Asia Plus Securities said yesterday.
In its research note, the brokerage said global stock markets rose ahead of and after the US attacked Iraq in 2003 while the UN’s investigation was incomplete. In Thailand, seven days ahead of the Iraq war, banking stocks rose the most, at 6.3 per cent, hospitals 6 per cent, property 5 per cent, petrochemicals 4.8 per cent, and electronics 4.6 per cent.
As a plus, a definite increase in short-term oil prices, should there be war against Syria, will benefit energy stocks, it said. Sixty days after the attack against Iraq started, Thai energy stocks rose 33.45 per cent.
“Global stock markets should rise if there is no war, but it is not definite if it would react negatively in light of a war,” it said.
Seven days ahead of the attack against Iraq on March 20, 2003, Wall Street gained 9.45 per cent while the SET Index gained 0.95 per cent. Following the Wall Street trend, Thai shares rose by 2.8 per cent, 7.8 per cent and 23.3 per cent 14, 30 and 60 days after the launch of the attack.
The UN’s team tasked to prove the origins of a chemical-weapon deployment in the Middle East country expects to take at least a few weeks to complete its report.
Yesterday, the SET Index rose above 1,300 points, while Asian stocks advanced on the increase in China’s manufacturing index to a 16-month high, boosting investor confidence in the global economic recovery.
The SET ended at 1,323.70 points, up 29.40 points from Friday or 2.27 per cent, on turnover of Bt34 billion. From the 19-year high of 1,643.43 points registered on May 21, the index has lost 19.45 per cent on foreign sell-offs. Foreign net-sales this year to date are to the tune of Bt117 billion, including Bt39.9 billion last month alone.
