UTCC sees big recovery in 2014 exports
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'Global upswing' to boost Thai shipments
Exports will recover strongly next year, growing as much as 7.9 per cent, from only 1.31 per cent this year on the expected upswing in the global economy, particularly in the European Union and United States, according to the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.
Exports will revive to between US$241.5 billion and $250.56 billion from only $232.24 billion (Bt7.21 trillion) this year, the lowest tally in four years because of sluggish global commerce.
The UTCC’s projection for this year is much more pessimistic than the Commerce Ministry’s target of 4 per cent.
Aat Pisan-wanich, director of the university’s International Trade Studies Centre, said yesterday that total shipments this year would miss the target because of weak economic performances in many key markets, namely the EU, the US, Japan and China.
In the first nine months of the year, exports barely budged by 0.05 per cent to $172.13 billion. To achieve 4 per cent this year, the average in the remaining three months should pass 15 per cent, or $22.08 billion a month, which would be very difficult.
The public and private sectors should look beyond this year, as orders for goods for this year have already been placed, Aat said.
They need to draw up a plan to drum up more trade next year, especially with the EU and Asean markets, as many countries are expected to go back on the economic growth path.
The government should promote more exports under free-trade agreements, while setting up Thailand trading plazas in some new emerging economies to help local small and medium-sized enterprises penetrate overseas markets.
The two major negative factors are the fluctuating exchange rate and falling agricultural prices.
The exchange rate is projected at Bt30.89-Bt31.22 against the US dollar.
The advanced economies will grow 2 per cent next year, the centre thinks, while the US economy will gain more momentum from 1.6 per cent this year to 2.6 per cent next year. Euro-area countries will grow by 1 per cent, reversing direction from a decline of 0.4 per cent.
But the Japanese economy will stumble from 2 per cent this year to 1.2 per cent next year.
Growth in China’s gross domestic product will also lose pace from 7.6 to 7.3 per cent, while Asean countries will grow by 5-5.4 per cent next year, the centre predicts.
