Inflation for 2013 to post four-year low of 2.2%: Commerce
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The country's inflation is expected to post a four-year low for 2013, at only 2.2 per cent.
Commerce Ministry data showed that the Consumer Price Index in October rose only 1.46 per cent from the same month last year, and by just 0.17 per cent from September. The 10-month average was only 2.27 per cent year on year.
Core inflation in October was 0.71 per cent year on year, and 0.12 per cent month on month. The 10-month average was 1.03 per cent year on year, well within the Bank of Thailand’s target band of 0.5-3 per cent.
“The full-year inflation rate will be between 2.1 and 2.6 per cent, mainly from falling prices of fuel and some food prices,” said Urawee Ngowroongrueng, deputy permanent secretary of the ministry.
Demand for Thai exports has dropped more severely than expected, while domestic consumption and investment have fallen. While export value in the first nine months of this year rose by only 0.05 per cent from the same period of 2012, domestic consumption in September contracted, blamed on high accumulated household debt.
The Commerce Ministry’s inflation target of 2.1-2.6 per cent is based on the assumption that the average price of Dubai crude oil will be in the range of US$90-$110 per barrel. The baht exchange rate is expected to average 33-32 against the US dollar.
The ministry projects fourth-quarter inflation at only 1.7 per cent year on year, as the prices of some goods such as rice, fruits and vegetables, processed foods, and non-alcoholic beverages will decline.
Among the 450 products in the inflation-calculation basket, the prices of 181 items were unchanged last month, against rises for 159 products and declines for 74 items.
In October, the food-and-beverage index rose by 2.87 per cent, mainly on higher prices for meat, rice and flour, poultry and aquatic products, and eggs and dairy products. The prices of eggs and dairy products went up by 8.51 per cent, while fresh vegetables and fruits were up slightly, by 0.1 per cent.
The non-food-and-beverage index increased slightly by 0.75 per cent, mainly on higher prices of garments (0.91 per cent), houses (0.86 per cent) and tobacco and alcoholic beverages (3.52 per cent).
