SET index at 1,380 foreseeable on violence

In Krungthep Turakij TV's "Ringside" programme, Therdsak Thaveeteeratham, the house's head of research, said that without violence the index would swing in a right range with possibility that it would fall to 1,400 points. The index could dip deeper in light of violence.

Still, the house still maintained its end-2013 SET index target at 1,465 points. The SET index last week ended at 1,429 points. 

He noted that if the protests are not prolonged and ended without violence, the index could rebound. In light of extended protests without violence, the index could be shaved off by 43-44 points. However, if the protests are for a long period and turn violent, the market would lose about 70 points. 

Asia Plus's statistics showed that the market reacted the most negatively to House dissolution. During 1988-2006, Thailand's House of Representatives were dissolved four times - April 1988, May 1995, September 1996 and February 2006. In one month, 3 months and 6 months after the dissolution, the SET index headed down by 3.9 per cent, 8.8 per cent and 9.3 per cent, respectively. Comparatively, the index went down only 1.5 per cent, 1.8 per cent and 5.3 per cent in the respective periods after the 2006 coup d'etat.

"Historically, the market was the most disturbed by House dissolution, if external factors were excluded. In that event, the index could fall by 4-5 per cent, against the loss of 2.8 per cent following protests," he said.