Growth forecast revised down to 3.4%: SCB
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Siam Commercial Bank has slashed its economic growth forecast from 5 per cent to 3.4 per cent, on the worse-than-expected falls in exports and domestic consumption.
Chief Economist Sutapa Amornvivat said the new forecast took into account the only 0.1 per cent growth in Thailand's export revenue in the first nine months of this year, which is below expectation. Meanwhile, private consumption, particularly in the automotive sector, plunged sharply. Moreover, government spending this year - both on-budget and off-budget - should be below expectation.
In 2014, the Thai economy should expand by 4.5 per cent, it said, when the export revenue should grow by 8 per cent - particularly thanks to demand for automobile and parts as well as electronics products. The economy should also benefit from the clearer picture of government spending projects.
The Thai baht is expected to range 31-32 per US dollar next year. The currency would be largely influenced by the planned tapering of the quantitative easing policy. The policy rate should stay at 2.50 per cent, while inflation would stay low and household debt would fall.
