Ministry chops export growth target to 3.5% on external factors
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The Commerce Ministry has slashed its 2014 export target to only 3.5 per cent from 5 per cent, as the global economy faces a long and rocky road to recovery, particularly in China, which swallows up some 10 per cent of Thai shipments and is also a major s
“The global economic recovery remains uncertain. In particular, the slowdown of China’s economy has created a domino effect on Thai shipments. This will affect Thailand’s exports to many destinations, including Asean, our single largest overseas market,” permanent secretary Srirat Rastapana said yesterday. Some economists have also cut their forecasts.
In a meeting with Chatchai Salikalya, deputy economic chief under the National Council for Peace and Order, she explained that the target must be cut to reflect the global outlook.
According to the ministry, exports in the first four months edged down 0.97 per cent year on year, with drops of 5.6 per cent to China, 4.5 per cent to Asean, 15.6 per cent to Australia, 10.1 per cent to South Korea and 0.6 per cent to India. The ministry will try to compose a strategy to promote exports in the rest of the year.
Siam Commercial Bank said in a research note that its forecast for 4-per-cent export growth this year might not be achieved given the slump in computer and accessories exports in the past two months and the lack of a recovery in agricultural products such as rubber. Computers and accessories account for about 8 per cent of total exports.
Kasikorn Research Centre, however, looks for exports to start rebounding this quarter. It maintains its export-growth projection at 3-6 per cent.In a research note, it said exports might pick up in a month or two, as companies in some industries such as electronics and electrical appliances plan to boost capacity.
Srirat said Chatchai assigned the ministry to come up with measures to stimulate the economy and ensure a fair cost of living as top priorities.
The ministry will finalise its plans within a few days for reporting to the NCPO.
After the coup, the ministry needs to go slower for the moment with some activities, such as rice releases and negotiations of free-trade agreements. However, the programmes will be reconsidered as soon as the NCPO’s economic team has a clear policy to focus on economic measures to usher Thailand towards the Asean Economic Community by next year.
Disbursements under the state budget for this and next fiscal year should also continue and will not affect the ministry’s plans.
The ministry has proposed an urgent six-point action plan to enforce laws and regulations to maximise business growth, stabilise farm-goods prices and support SMEs, continue world trade talks and promote export growth among others, she said.
