Shipments may see 2nd year of contraction

Thai shipments this year may see face flat growth or even a slight contraction of 0.1 per cent due to falling rubber and oil exports, and a slowdown in growth in some markets, the Commerce Ministry said.

The ministry reported yesterday that November exports contracted one per cent year on year to US$18.56 billion (Bt595.97 billion). 

Total shipment in the first 11 months dropped 0.42 per cent year on year to $209.18 billion (Bt6.71 trillion). 

“Total exports this year could face a flat growth or a negative growth of 0.1 per cent, as the lower oil price has led to lower export value and volume of oil shipment, while the lower demand for rubber in the world market has also affected shipments,” said Nuntawan Sakuntanaga, director-general to the International Trade Promotion Department.

If exports contract this year, it will be two consecutive years of contraction as shipments in 2013 had also contracted by 0.32 per cent over the previous year to $228.5 billion.

However, Nuntawan remained optimistic about export expansion next year, with the ministry setting a 4 per cent growth target worth a total of $236 billion in 2015.

However, some worrying factors could take a toll on exports next year, including the slowdown in Japan and China and the impact on the spending power of people in the Middle East, Russia, and Latin America from the falling price of oil.

Nuntawan explained that shipments in November fell mainly due to dropping oil exports, following its sliding price in the world market.

Last month, oil exports were valued at US$835 million, with a volume of 1.49 billion litres, compared to 1.58 billion litres valued at $1.26 billion in November 2013.

Rubber shipments also declined last month by 13.9 per cent in volume and 43 per cent in value to $429 million.

In the first 11 months, shipments of agricultural and agro-industrial products declined 2.8 per cent year on year, while industrial products was up by one per cent year on year.

Exports to some major markets have dropped in the first 11 months, contracting by 1.7 per cent to Japan, by 6.7 per cent to China, by 9.9 per cent to Australia, by 0.7 per cent to the Middle East, and by 6.7 per cent to Latin America.

However, there was growth in shipments to the United States by 3.3 per cent, to the European Union by 5.1 per cent, to Asean by 0.4 per cent, and to South Asia by 3 per cent.

Imports in November declined 3.46 per cent to US$18.64 billion (Bt605.43 billion). Thailand faced a trade deficit of $78 million last month. 

In the first 11 months, imports saw an 8.99-per-cent slide to $210.75 (Bt6.84 trillion) while trade deficit was $1.56 billion (Bt127.88 billion).

Thailand’s total cross-border trade with four countries grew 7 per cent year on year in the first 11 months to Bt901.47 billion. Exports were up 5.95 per cent to $539.73 billion, while imports rose 8.59 per cent to $361.74 billion.

The Kingdom projects cross-border trade can reach Bt1.1 trillion by the end of this year.