Escap eyes 3.9% growth for Thailand
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Thailand's economy, after the sharp slowdown to 0.8 per cent in 2014, is forecast to grow by 3.9 per cent due to increased short-term consumer and investor confidence following the end of the protracted political instability, said the United Nations Econo
Thailand is cited as one of the growth drivers in the region.
The report titled "Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2014: Year-end Update" said growth in Asia-Pacific developing economies will pick up moderately in 2015. Yet, it also highlights that growth in the region remains below pre-crisis levels.
Prospects for growth would be better if supported by much-needed structural reforms, and could also be boosted by lower oil prices that are an opportunity to mobilize resources for inclusive and sustainable development, it said.
Developing countries in Asia and the Pacific are forecast to grow at an average of 5.8 per cent this year, up from 5.6 per cent in 2014, driven by
improved economic performances in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Republic of Korea and Thailand, according to updated forecasts by
the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) in its Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2014: Year-end Update. The report also highlights that growth in the region remains below pre-crisis levels.
In the report, it said structural reforms in India and Indonesia are projected to help increase their growth to 6.4 and 5.6 per cent, respectively, from 5.5 and 5.2 per cent, respectively, in 2014. Growth in China is forecast to hover around 7 per cent in 2015 consistent with the ongoing economic rebalancing.
Escap analysis estimated that the region should need to invest US$815 billion per year up to 2020, to close gaps in many sectors like transport, telecommunications, water and sanitation, the maintenance of roads and railways, energy-efficient and technologies.
A decrease in regional inflation this year to 3.5 from 3.9 per cent in 2014, offers room in some regional economies for loosening monetary
policies to support growth, indicates the Year-end Update.
“Despite improved prospects many developing economies in the region face structural constraints which have kept them from realizing their growth
potential. Infrastructure shortages remain acute and growth has not translated into enough decent jobs,” said United Nations Under-Secretary-General and Escap Executive Secretary Dr. Shamshad Akhtar.
The steep decline in oil prices in recent months may be the start of a longer-term trend and will have a significant, yet varying impact across
the region. The Year-end Update estimates that for energy-importing countries, a $10 per barrel fall in the oil price in 2015 would translate
into an increase in GDP growth of up to 0.5 percentage points.
While a recovering United States economy will support growth in Asia-Pacific exporting economies, slow growth in the eurozone and Japan
will be a challenge as will be China’s moderating growth. Escap also alerts the region to brace for capital outflows following an expected raising of
interest rates by the US Federal Reserve although this could be buffered to some extent by new financial injections by the eurozone and Japan.
