Gold traders see rise in price after three months of decline
The gold price sentiment index for this month improved slightly by 4.4 points to 49.9 from the previous month, following three straight months of decline, according to the Gold Research Centre.
A figure below 50 reflects uncertainty in the gold-price recovery.
Most traders are fairly optimistic that the gold price will improve over last month, when it dipped considerably, and will likely be range-bound at Bt17,500-Bt19,500 per baht weight this month and at US$1,160-$1,260 per ounce for the global gold price.
The cash cost of gold last year fell in line with the global price for the metal and depressed the all-in sustaining, specific gold weighted-average production cost, or cash cost, to less than $1,000 per ounce.
Kamolthan Pornpaisalvijit, director of the centre, said yesterday that the factors influencing the gold price comprised the US dollar, firming trend of the baht, concern that the US Federal Reserve will raise its policy interest rate, the crude-oil price, and investors’ profit speculation.
The gold sentiment index for the specific trader group rose by nearly 30 per cent to 12.7 points from last month.
The gold sentiment index for the next three months continued to fall by 1.1 points to 48.8, which reflects that investors and gold traders are still concerned about the gold-price recovery. They believe that the price will drop again in two or three months.
However, the Fed is likely to raise its benchmark interest rate in the late second or third quarter, because of the strong US dollar’s impact on that country’s economy.
Thassana Boonkawn, head of the centre’s working committee on gold-trader consensus and a major gold wholesaler, trader and futures business operator, discovered that most traders were bullish on the gold price for this month.
Four traders believe the average price will rise, while three expect the price to be close to what it was last month. No traders expect that the average price for this month will fall.
Most traders expect the maximum global price at the $1,240-$1,260 upper range and the minimum price range of $1,160-$1,180 per ounce.
As for the local gold (95.5 per cent pure) bar price, the survey’s sample group expects the maximum price to be in the range of Bt19,000-Bt19,500 per baht weight and the minimum price to be in the Bt17,500-Bt18,000 range.
The cash cost of gold figures obtained from nine major gold producers last year showed an overall decline in gold mining and production costs in line with the global decline of gold prices.
The all-in sustaining weighted average cost in 2013 dropped from $1,036 per ounce to $959 in 2014, but the cash cost rose slightly from $672.47 to $676.49.
