UTCC eyes very low growth rate
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The University of Thai Chamber of Commerce's latest economic growth forecast for 2015 is now the lowest among domestic economic houses.
The university's economic forecasting centre today revised down the annualised growth rate to 3.2 per cent, from the previous forecast of 4 per cent.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Thai economy to expand by 3.7 per cent in 2015, according to the latest assessment released on April 9.
Deputy Transport Minister Arkhom Tempittayapaisit, as secretary-general of the Office of National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) said today that the think tank has maintained the 2015 growth forecast at 3-5-4.5 per cent on assumption that budget disbursement and public investment goes as planned.
In March, the Bank of Thailand cut the growth forecast from 4 per cent to 3.8 per cent.
UTCC's growth revision followed the poorer-than-expected performance in the first quarter. This year, Thailand's export should expand in a range of 0-1 per cent, compared to the 3-4 per cent forecast announced in November-December. Indicating dismal domestic demand, inflation is also expected to ease from 2.3 per cent to 0.5 per cent.
In a related development, the Thai government expected the economy to register a 3 per cent growth rate in the first quarter of this year, despite dismal export figures.
Arkhom said that economic figures were discussed today during the Economic Ministers Council meeting.
He said that indicators in January and February showed some improvement, particularly in tourism which generates 10 per cent of the country's gross domestic product. Tourist arrivals in the first two months of this year went up by 26 per cent on year, mainly thanks to the influx of Chinese tourists.
Meanwhile, though exports as a whole contracted 4 per cent in the period, border trade has increased, he said. Meanwhile, private investment showed an increase, he said.
He is convinced that the start of infrastructure investment projects as well as low oil prices would sustain the growth momentum.
He added that the Bank of Thailand was instructed to maintain foreign exchange stability, to maintain the country's economic competitiveness.
Thanavath Phonvichai, director of UTCC's forecasting centre, is convinced that border trade and the start of the infrastructure projects should allow the Thai economy to recover from the second quarter onwards.
