Agriculture sector to fall 4.3% this year after
Drying out under the prolonged drought, the agriculture sector is expected to shrivel up 3.3-4.3 per cent this year after already shrinking 4.2 per cent in the first half.
"The agricultural sector will face negative growth this year as production of many crops is low, prices of many commodities remain low and rice growing is limited due to the drought," Lersak Rewtarkulpaiboon, secretary-general of the Agricultural Economics Office under the Agriculture Ministry, said yesterday.
Hardest hit will be farming, while other businesses are still going strong this year, like those in the livestock, seafood and forestry industries.
While the global economy has recovered this year, and the weakening exchange rate and declining oil prices in the world market should help motivate exports of farm goods, the climate change problem causing a serious drought this year has caused a serious decline in the country’s agricultural sector.
Future factors that bear close monitoring are the drought and the looming rains to bail out farmers, and economy of China, which is one of the major importers of many Thai agricultural products.
By category, crops faced a contraction at 7.3 per cent in the first half of this year. Production dropped mainly for the second rice crop, pineapples, rubber, palms and some fruit. Plants that will face higher production and prices are the main rice crops in the South, which are cassava, sugarcane, maize and durians.
For this year, crops are projected to fall short of last year by 6-7 per cent.
Livestock was up 2.1 per cent in the first half and is expected to grow 1.3-2.3 per cent this year. Production of chickens, pork, eggs and dairy products increased, while prices slipped slightly as more supply entered the market. Exports of chicken surged in the first half.
Seafood picked up 2.2 per cent in the first half, thanks to the recovery of shrimp farming from a disease outbreak. However, there are concerns for the second half after Thailand faced problems related to labour. This segment is expected to advance 2-3 per cent this year.
Services dived 6.6 per cent in the first half as the first and second rice crops suffered from the drought. This segment is projected to continue sliding in the second half, and retreat by 4.2-5.2 per cent for the full year.
Forestry expanded by 3.5 per cent, mainly from rising harvesting of rubber wood, eucalyptus wood and honey and increased production of charcoal. The sector is expected to gain 3-4 per cent for the whole year.
