Foreign chambers see continued political stability after charter rejection

 

Stanley Kang, chairman of the Joint Foreign Chambers of Commerce in Thailand, said the chambers believed that there was no immediate cause of concern regarding the Kingdom’s political situation.

“The government should continue to ensure the transparency and the efficiency of its policies in the coming year, as those are the most important elements, and it should continue with the strong anti-corruption measures to help increase business confidence here,” he said.

“The JFCCT also wants to see continuity in the process to return Thailand to a democratic system,” he added.

Darren Buckley, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Thailand, said the fate of the new charter could only be decided by the Thai people, but the international community still wanted to see continuity in political stability and for the military government to follow its road map of returning democracy to Thailand.

“In terms of the economy, foreign investors and the international community hope that the stimulus measures of the new Council of Economic Ministers will be able to revive economic growth in the next period,” he said.

Tim Leelahaphan, Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) economist, said political risks remained low after the rejection of the draft charter but the NRC’s move meant that it would be at least seven months before the referendum on the new charter could be held. As well, the result of the referendum could extend the military government’s tenure by two more years. 

After the rejection by the NRC, a new Charter Drafting Committee will be appointed within a month to rewrite the draft within six months. After that, the rewritten charter will be put directly to a referendum within 45 days.

Tim said observers expected the rewritten charter to be more politician-friendly, and the referendum could become a vote on Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and his junta.

“Even without a direct question on whether the public wants the military government to stay on for a certain period of time to oversee the reform process, a rejection of the rewritten charter would mean a continuation of the government to find a solution. Therefore, the referendum could result in the current government staying on for another two years,” he said.

“Political risk is still low but needs to be watched in our view and the situation appears calm, which will help support the economy. Note that observers believe that the appointment of the new Army chief, General Thirachai Nakwanich, whom General Prayut trusts, would help Prayut remain in the top seat, at least this year and next,” he added.

Meanwhile, Nopporn Thepsithar, chairman of the Thai National Shippers Council, said the NRC's rejection of the draft charter is acceptable by private sector as it is better than prolonging the incompleted drafted and ruin more time in the future.

    "It is acceptable if there will be some delayed in drafting new charter. The original draft should be adapted in some how to make it clear and better draft for all acceptance. I think although the delaying process, or should not drag on the next election too long as it is still under the timeframe or not late than late 2016," he said.

    Nopporn is confident that the next election should not be as too late as two years as someone might worry.