Inflation expected to stay positive for rest of 2016

“Inflation looks like remaining positive for the remainder of the year. Inflation in the third quarter is expected to be 1 per cent, and in the fourth quarter is projected at 2 per cent, resulting in a full-year inflation rate of 0-1 percent,” Somkiat Triratpan, inspector-general at the ministry and director of its Policies and Trade Strategies Bureau, said yesterday.

Inflation for the first five months of the year was negative-0.2 per cent. 

Somkiat said the ministry would maintain its full-year inflation prediction at 0-1 per cent as factors influencing inflation, including oil prices, economic growth, and the exchange rate are expected to be the same.

This is based on an assumption that gross domestic product will grow by 2.8-3.8 per cent, the baht will range between 36 and 38 against the US dollar, and the price of Dubai oil will be $30-$40 per barrel.

In May, among the 450 items in the inflation basket, the prices of 193 products increased, 70 declined, and 187 were unchanged.

Last month, core inflation – excluding volatile fuel and food prices – was slightly positive, at 0.78 per cent year on year and 0.05 per cent month on month. 

Core inflation in the first five months was 0.72 per cent, well under the average of Bank of Thailand’s estimate of 0.5-3 per cent for the full year.