Fluctuation in Asean currencies expected on UK vote

TUESDAY, JUNE 21, 2016
Fluctuation in Asean currencies expected on UK vote

Asean currencies are likely to witness an initial selloff on Friday if British nationals vote to leave the European Union, said a research by UOB.

They are expected to weaken by 2-3 per cent against US dollar. The bank also anticipates intervention by central banks to cushion the sharp depreciation.
However, if Britain is voted to remain in the European Union, the currencies are likely to stage a relief rally of 1-2 per cent.
The results of the Brexit referendum are expected some time in 10-11am on June 24.

 

Pound may fall below $1: 1.35

The British pound, if falling below 1.3836 per US dollar in the Brexit scenario, could fall further towards 1.3500 or lower, according to UOB research.
The bank anticipated the currency to trade between 1.4005-1.3836 per dollar immediately after the voting results are made public on Friday. The $1:1.35 was last seen in 2009 and represents a loss of about 8 per cent current levels of 1.47.
"Below 1.3500, there is another level at 1.3320 followed by the psychology round number level of 1.3000," it noted.
If the "Remain" votes take the lead, the pound could immediately rise to 1.477. If it breaches the level, the currency could rise further to 1.511 or 1.5335, about 4 per cent from current levels.
The pound remains above the 1.47 figure, levels not seen since early May. The bank noted that it maintained the long-standing view that the UK would ultimately vote to remain in the EU.
Two out of 3 polls released this week has the “remain” camp back in the lead, although a 3rd poll (conducted by YouGov) has shown support for leaving the EU favoured by 44 per cent versus 42 per cent to stay.