Consumer confidence dips for second month in a row

It urged the government to expedite its stimulus measures late this year and infrastructure investment for next year.
Gross domestic product is expected to grow 3.2 per cent this year and stage a recovery in the second quarter of 2017.
Thanawat Polvichai, the centre’s director, said there had not yet been clear signs of a recovery because of people’s concern over the uncertain global economic situation and low prices of agricultural products. 
November’s CCI dropped to 72.3 from 73.1 a month earlier, while the confidence index on the overall economy inched down to 61.2 from 62.0. 
The index on job opportunity declined to 66.9 from 67.5.
An index below 100 indicates a deteriorating outlook.
The centre does not expect consumption to make a big recovery in the final quarter of the year because people are being cautious with their spending. 
However, government economic stimulus measures and higher prices of agricultural products could prompt improvement in consumption in the first quarter of next year.
If global economic uncertainties ease along with consistent investment and budget disbursement by the government, the Thai economy will stage a recovery from the second quarter of next year or, at the latest, the latter half of 2017, Thanawat said.
Next year’s GDP growth is estimated at 3-4 per cent. 
However, that is still below the country’s growth potential of 3.5-4.0 per cent, and if growth is less than 4 per cent, the Thai economy may face long-term risks, Thanawat said.
The centre expects recent floods in the South to cost the Thai economy Bt5 billion to Bt10 billion, as it has inconvenienced travel to tourist destinations. 
If the government launches the “Shop for the Nation” measure with a tax deduction of Bt15,000, about Bt20 billion more capital will be added to the economic system, the centre said. 
If the deduction is set at Bt30,000, about Bt25 billion to Bt35 billion more capital will be added to the system. 
Currently, the tax deduction on tourism of Bt15,000 is expected to inject Bt5 billion to Bt10 billion into circulation, it said.
In conclusion, late this year is expected to see Bt50 billion to Bt80 billion more in the system, which could boost the economic environment and prompt fourth-quarter growth of 3 per cent.
The centre forecasts flat export growth for this year, or a contraction of 1 per cent. 
Next year is projected to see export growth of 0-2 per cent, or 1 per cent on average.
In 2017, the global economy is expected to face risks from US policies, local spending climates, Britain’s plan to exit the European Union, and elections in Italy, France and Germany. 
Other risks include likely low commodity prices as a result of an expected global crude-oil price of US$50-$55 per barrel.