
Pawan Nawawattanasub, chief executive of YLG, said the global gold price was expected to see its support line at $1,090 an ounce, and Bt18,600 per baht weight locally. Its resistance line is projected at $1,260 (Bt21,500 per baht weight).
By Tuesday, the global price had risen 7.4 per cent this year, while the local price had gained 6.5 per cent.
Next year, if the support line of $1,090 an ounce holds up, the metal could go on to test resistance at $1,200, Pawan said. If the price passes through this level, it could move up to test the next resistance in a range of $1,250 to$1,260 and, possibly, revisit the 2016 high of $1,375, she said.
However, if the price falls below the support line of $1,090, a selling spree could take hold and result in a possible return to the 2015 low of $1,045.
Short-term investors should plan their investments clearly, she noted.
She said the main impact factor for the gold price in 2017 was the US Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policies.
If the Fed implements three or more rate rises at a fast pace in 2017, that may lead to rising US dollar and bond yields, which could pressure the gold price, Pawan said.
Positive economic expectations for the policies of incoming US president Donald Trump will also likely prompt higher demand for risky assets next year and that could spur a sell-off of safe-haven assets like gold, she said. The gold price may also be held back by sluggish demand for the metal from China and India.
However, the gold price may gain from any move by Britain to begin the process for its departure from the European Union before the end of March.
If the negotiations hit worse-than-expected snags, such difficulties may boost demand for safe haven assets. Indeed, if the negotiations |go smoothly and encourage more EU states to follow Britain’s lead, |the arising uncertainties would |also raise demand for gold, Pawan said.