Export value rises first time in 4 years in 2016 

At the same time, import value last year contracted by 3.94 per cent to $194.66 billion, and as a result Thailand was locked into its highest trade surplus ever at $20.65 billion.
With Thailand’s 0.45-per-cent export growth last year, it was the eight highest ranks in the world, the fourth in Asean, and the second strongest growth among Asean countries. Average global trading value in the first 11 months of last year declined by 3.1 per cent.
Thailand’s export value in 2015 declined by 5.79 per cent year on year, in 2014 by 0.43 per cent, and in 2013 by 0.26 per cent, amid lower oil prices and slowing global economic growth.
“Exports last year finally returned to growth as a result of increasing oil prices and recovering global economic and trade growth. Thus, this year, Thai exports should continue to grow along with higher oil prices and stronger economic and trade growth globally,” said Pimchanok Vonkorpon, director-general of the Commerce Ministry’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office.
This year, the ministry forecasts export value to grow by 2.5-3.5 per cent to between $220.7 billion and $222.86 billion. This is based on an assumption of an average Dubai crude-oil price of $50-$60 per barrel, while the exchange rate will be Bt35.5-Bt37.5 against the US dollar.
Last year, Dubai oil averaged $50.9 per barrel, and the average exchange rate was Bt34.3 to the dollar.
Pimchanok said the export-growth forecast did not take into consideration changes in US trade policy or the impact of Britain’s leaving the European Union, as it will take time to see the impact of those factors. 
However, the office believes Thai exports this year could grow by as much as 5 per cent if the global economy expands strongly.
In December alone, export value was up by a strong 6.23 per cent year on year to $18.16 billion, while imports increased by 10.34 per cent to $17.22 billion, resulted in a trade surplus of $938 million for the month. The increase in imports was a positive sign, as the import of capital and raw materials has increased significantly to supply the manufacturing sector.
Last month, export of agricultural products increased by 5.5 per cent, and of industrial goods by 5.4 per cent. For the whole of 2016, the export of agricultural products declined by 3 per cent, while industrial-goods exports rose by 2 per cent.
Tim Leelahaphan, Thailand economist at Maybank Kim Eng Securities, said the export of oil-related products, which performed badly last year, would pick up this year as global oil prices are up from a very low base. 
Exports of some products will continue to do well this year, including seafood, fresh and processed chicken, fresh, processed and canned vegetables and fruits, car parts, and air-conditioners and parts. 
Imports will continue to show improvement. This implies increasing domestic economic activity. They include parts for electrical equipment and electronics and iron and steel products. 
Thai trade accounts will continue to show a surplus this year |but will narrow as headline imports rise, according to the securities house.