Trump policies unlikely to hit Thai exports hard

MANY THAI products in both the agricultural and industrial sectors that have relied largely on the US market could face slower growth if President Donald Trump decides to increase import tariffs indiscriminately on every country, according to a study by the Commerce Ministry’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office.
“However, if the US decides to impose tariffs only on particular countries, mainly China and Mexico, most Thai products will not be affected, while some products could enjoy higher shipments to the US and Canada to replace Chinese goods,” said Pimchanok Vonkorpon, director-general of the office.
Products that could face negative impacts from higher import tariffs include hard disk drives, printers, video cameras, jewellery and ornaments, tyres, computer parts, canned fruits, and frozen shrimp.
Pimchanok said yesterday that Thai products exported to the US could be affected if the Trump administration decides to impose tariffs on every trading partner, including those that enjoy most-favoured-nation status.
If that does not happen, however, products that could enjoy more export opportunities are mostly consumer goods, vehicle parts, television sets, bicycles and motorcycles and parts, ovens, furniture, clothes and garments.
Moreover, while there is no certainty on upcoming US trade and investment policies, Pichanok Pimchanok said this could result in hesitation or a “wait and see” mood among those planning to start new investments or expand businesses related to supplying North American markets in the short term. 
However, American investment aimed at supplying the global market will continue in Thailand and elsewhere in Asia.
The study also found office also believes that the expansionary fiscal policy of the US government to stimulate the domestic economy should help increase American purchasing power, which could have positive effects on Thai exports.
The US decision to leave the Trans-Pacific Partnership and focus on bilateral trade should also benefit Thailand, as trade rivals including Vietnam and Malaysia now will not benefit from the TPP.
Pimchanok added that overall, US trade policies should not have serious negative direct impacts on Thailand. However, there are still some indirect factors that Thailand should monitor, including fluctuating exchange rates, capital flows, trade barriers, and changing oil prices.