Flat growth seen as just fine for Asia 

TUESDAY, JULY 04, 2017
Flat growth seen as just fine for Asia 

ASIA-PACIFIC economies are drifting into the third quarter of 2017 on a subdued note.

But for S&P Global, this unexciting state of affairs is welcome, considering July marks the 20th anniversary of the Asian financial crisis, the company said in an article published yesterday.
Growth in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines was steady, said the report titled “The Asia-Pacific macro story is flat as the 20th anniversary of the crisis arrives”.
“The best adjective to describe the Asia-Pacific macro story at mid-2017 is: flat,” said Paul Gruenwald, S&P Global chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region. 
“Hopes are fading fast for a reflation story driven by the Keynesian inclinations of the new US administration. Europe is looking a bit more solid following the French election, but that is not enough to move the dial on the external environment facing Asia-Pacific.
“Nevertheless, we raised our forecast for full-year growth in China, on the back of the strong expansion reported in the first quarter. We expect the country's economy to grow by 6.7 per cent this year, compared with our previous 6.4 per cent estimate for 2017.”
Japan is expanding at a respectable annualised rate of 1 per cent, but that is half the rate of the initial GDP estimate for the first quarter. Australia grew just 1.1 per cent annualised in the quarter, with net exports pulling down growth. “We anticipate quicker growth through the remainder of the year, however, with full year growth of 2.5 per cent on the back of steady domestic activity. Domestic demand in both economies looks fairly solid,” Gruenwald said.

India, the bright spot 
India remains the bright spot despite a weaker than expected start to the year owing to demonetisation effects, the report said. The structural reform drive there continues to lift potential growth.
Elsewhere, the trade-dependent “tiger economies” of Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan did see a pick-up in the first quarter, although the trade story is fading. 
“This month marks the 20 anniversary of the start of the Asian financial crisis. The lessons of that unhappy event have been largely learned,” added Gruenwald. “In that context, the current unexciting state of the region's economies is actually quite welcome.”