MarketWatch

  Therdsak Thaveeteeratham
Executive vice president / research
Asia Plus Securities
From August 25, the SET Index has been driven by foreign capital, rising more than 7 per cent. It’s possible to see it reach above 1,700 points on the back of consistent capital inflow in light of the Thai bourse’s sound fundamentals and still-low foreign holding of Thai stocks. 
Thai listed companies’ estimated 2017 EPS is Bt101.4 and PER at the 1,700 point is 16.77 times.
The third-quarter 2017 profit announcements will start from this mid-week. Both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year growth rates are expected. The first announcers will be banking groups. The 10 banks in our coverage are expected to see an 8.2 per cent increase quarter-on-quarter to Bt49.1 billion for lower loan loss provision. Our picks are SCB, KBANK and TCAP.
Property groups are also projected to shine in third-quarter results. A number of already-completed condominium projects are ready for transfer in the second half this year. Stock picks are AP and ANAN. 
The third quarter is always a high season for exports, and electronics and component groups could gain from the depreciating baht. We pick HANA from this group. Given it’s the season for chicken products, we also picks GFPT and CPF in the food group. The hospital group is going into its high season with increased income per patient with social security insurance. We prefer LPH. Others with estimated good profit are MCS and VNG.
This week, we are still keeping a watch on developments in the Korean Peninsula and this is a risk to investment. If violence eventuates, more capital may change its direction into safe-haven assets.
Prakit Sirivattanaket
Vice president
Kasikorn Securities
The baht’s depreciation has been continuing for a long time.
Now is a good time for investors’ speculation on the US dollar, given several support factors for its likely consistent appreciation. 
These span from one more likely US rate hike this year on the back of inflation close to its 2 per cent target, to the high chance of US tax reform getting Congress approval, which could prompt relocation of manufacturing bases and capital flowing back to the US. If a new Fed chairman is selected as markets expect, the US banking sector and stock markets will respond positively.
From January to September this year, the US Dollar Index has weakened more than 11 per cent for the said issues. Therefore, it will not be difficult for it to turn to appreciate more than half of that level following such a long time of depreciation.
As a result, the baht will likely turn to depreciate for a long period, which could be pressured by the US dollar’s appreciation and profit-taking by foreign investors who have been selling bonds.
The spread between the Thai 10-year bond yield and the US 10-year bond yield is minus 0.05 per cent, a 17-month low, reflecting less interest in bonds and, probably, more bond sales by foreign investors. The Thai 10-year bond yield will rise and the baht will turn to depreciate consistently. (This is contrary to what happened previously. From the beginning of this year, foreign investors poured Bt320 billion into Thai bonds, pressuring the baht to appreciate 7.5 per cent.)
KBank forecasts that the baht will depreciate to test 33.80 per US dollar in 2018.