EIC ups Thai growth forecast to 4.3% as expansion now more broad-based
Siam Commercial Bank’s Economic Intelligence Centre (EIC) on Monday revised its forecast for Thailand’s 2018 economic growth to 4.3 per cent from the previous estimate of 4 per cent, reflecting stronger expansion in recent periods.
Growth improved in the first half of the year and was more broad-based, driven by the external sector from both merchandise exports and tourism, which continued to expand at a high rate, EIC said.
This resulted in domestic private demand beginning to recover in conjunction with consumption and investment, while public investment resumed growth after having contracted at the end of last year, the centre added.
EIC now projects that the value of merchandise exports for the whole year will grow 8.5 per cent.
However, risks from a trade war will possibly worsen, which may affect global commerce and Thai exports in the period ahead, it warned.
It is therefore increasingly important for exporters to have coping strategies, such as finding new markets or preparing for potentially higher competition in some markets, the centre stressed.
EIC views that household income will likely continue expanding in the latter half of the year, thanks to both domestic and external demand, both of which are expected to grow and lead to higher demand for labour.
That said, it believes spending growth of low-income households may take time to recover, as household income has only just started to recover after not having increased for a long time, while household debt rose significantly and remains at a high level.
