Krungsri Research cuts Thailand’s 2021 growth forecast to 2.2%


In a report published on Tuesday, Krungsri Research adjusted downwards Thailand’s GDP growth in 2021 from 2.5 to 2.2 per cent in line with the Covid-19 situation and drought impact.

The centre also reduced its estimate of 4 million arrivals to just 3 million owing to the pandemic, which has been affecting Thailand’s tourism and service industries.

The research house also adjusted public investment estimates down from 10.5 per cent to 7.8 per cent, again due to the impacts of Covid-19 and drought.

The estimate on private investment and consumption, however, was adjusted upwards from 2 to 3.3 per cent and 1.8 to 2.9 per cent respectively due to the government’s economic stimulus measures and increased consumption in the first quarter.

Krungsri Research has also adjusted upward its estimate for exports in 2021 from 3.8 per cent to 6 per cent due to improving global economic conditions. It also predicts an expansion in imports from 5.2 per cent to 12.5 per cent.

Krungsri Research, however, says Thailand’s economic recovery will be delayed and be slower than forecast earlier, due mostly to the third wave of infections.

The research house also suggested the wave could peak between late April and early May with a median forecast of daily new cases peaking at 2,600.

Thailand’s cumulative cases could surge beyond 100,000, and the number of daily cases will fall to below 100 by early July, it predicted.