Thai farm incomes face pressure from global rice market shifts

Rice exports are another important source of income for Thailand.

More than that, rice is a key agricultural commodity because it is produced by around 61 per cent of Thai farming households, or 4.68 million households, representing about 45 per cent of the population, or 20 million people nationwide.

Rice is grown on about 11.52 million hectares of farmland.

The direction of the global rice market, therefore, helps forecast the future income of Thai farmers.

Data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), published in its Rice Outlook: April 2026 report, show that global rice production in 2025/26 is projected at 541.4 million metric tonnes on a milled basis, up 0.1 million tonnes from the previous forecast.

The increase was driven by higher production in Thailand, where favourable weather is expected to support a slight increase in planted area, offsetting lower output in the Philippines and Taiwan.

Production estimates for India and China remain unchanged from the previous forecast at 152 million metric tonnes and 146 million metric tonnes, respectively, leaving them as the world’s two largest rice producers.

“The month-to-month increase in production and beginning stocks has raised the estimate for global rice supplies in 2025/26 to 732.9 million tonnes, 0.4 million tonnes above the previous forecast issued in March 2026.”

For projected global rice consumption in 2025/26, including residual use that takes post-harvest losses into account, the April forecast was cut by 400,000 tonnes to 540.6 million tonnes.

The reduction was driven by a 175,000-tonne cut in Japan, 100,000 tonnes in Iraq, and a combined 75,000 tonnes in Cuba, Saudi Arabia and Taiwan.

Those declines were greater than the slight increases elsewhere.

Even so, consumption remains at record-high levels in several major rice-consuming countries, including Bangladesh, India, Nigeria, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and the United States.

The report also said global ending stocks in 2025/26 are projected at 192.3 million tonnes, up 0.8 million tonnes from the previous forecast, after upward revisions in inventories in countries including Iran, Pakistan, Japan and Thailand more than offset reductions in Bangladesh, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the Philippines and Taiwan.

China and India continue to account for the largest share of global rice stocks, largely because of government stockholding programmes.

Global rice trade in calendar year 2026 is still expected to remain at a record high, with global exports forecast at 62.1 million tonnes.

However, the April projection was lowered by 0.4 million tonnes from the previous forecast, mainly because of weaker export projections for Pakistan and the United States amid stronger competition from lower-priced exporters.

Global rice imports were also revised down by 0.3 million tonnes to 59.9 million tonnes, mainly because of lower imports across countries in the Middle East and Africa, outweighing increased imports in the Chinese market.

As for world rice prices, quotations between March 11, 2026 and April 8, 2026, rose for Thailand, Vietnam, Uruguay and Argentina, but fell for India and Pakistan.

US quotes for No. 2, 4 per cent brokens remained at US$550 per tonne. Thailand’s 100 per cent Grade B white rice rose by US$10, or 2 per cent, to US$388 per tonne, while Vietnam’s 5 per cent broken rice stood at US$380 per tonne, higher than the quoted price at the beginning of March.

India’s 5 per cent broken rice fell by US$15, or 4 per cent, to US$340 per tonne, marking a fourth consecutive month of decline, while Pakistan’s quotation fell by US$5, or 1 per cent, to US$345 per tonne.

Data from the Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) for March 30-April 5, 2026, show that 2025/26 main-season rice production, based on projections as of October 2025, is expected to cover 9.808 million hectares, with output of 26.9 million tonnes and an average yield of 440 kilogrammes per 0.16 Hectares.

Yield per 0.16 Hectares is expected to rise by 0.23 per cent.

Planting area is projected to decline because the prices farmers received were not attractive, prompting some to reduce their rice-growing cycle from two crops to just one, while some areas have shifted to sugar cane, which offers better returns, and others have been converted into residential areas.

Yield per 0.16 Hectares is expected to edge up slightly because water supplies have been sufficient for cultivation and crop growth.

In addition, rice plants in most areas have tillered and developed well this year.

The increase is expected to be limited, however, because some areas were hit by flooding, especially key production zones in the North, causing waterlogging and crop damage.

Overall national output is therefore expected to decline in line with the reduction in planted area and the impact of flooding.

Data from the Thai Rice Mills Association show that, as of April 10, 2026, white paddy rice in Ayutthaya was priced at THB7,200-7,600 per tonne, while Hom Mali paddy rice for the 2025/26 crop in Ubon Ratchathani stood at THB16,500-17,000 per tonne, unchanged from April 1, 2026.

Data from the Thai Rice Exporters Association show that export rice prices on an FOB basis on April 8, 2026, compared with April 1, 2026, put 5 per cent white rice at US$423 per tonne, up from US$384.

Thai Hom Mali rice, special grade for the 2025/26 crop, stood at US$1,202 per tonne, up from US$1,180, while 100 per cent parboiled rice was priced at US$439 per tonne, up from US$409.