ADB raises Thailand’s 2026 growth forecast to 2% on tech exports
ADB raises Thailand’s 2026 growth forecast to 2.0% as technology exports strengthen, but warns of El Niño, high debt and limited fiscal room.
- The Asian Development Bank (ADB) raised its 2026 economic growth forecast for Thailand to 2.0% from a previous projection of 1.8%.
- The upgrade is attributed to strong technology and electronics exports, which are benefiting from a global investment cycle in artificial intelligence (AI).
- Merchandise exports grew 14.8% in the first half of 2026, led by products such as computers, electronic components, and telecommunications equipment.
- The tech boom has also boosted domestic private investment, which increased by 11.6% in the first half of the year.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised its forecast for Thailand’s economic growth in 2026 to 2.0% from the 1.8% projected in July, supported by technology and electronics exports and a strong global investment cycle in artificial intelligence (AI). Growth is forecast at 1.9% in 2027.
The September 2026 update of the Asian Development Outlook also raises growth projections to 5.0% for developing Asia and the Pacific and 4.7% for developing Southeast Asia.
Thailand’s inflation forecast for 2026 has been lowered to 2.5% from 2.9%, with a further slowdown to 1.3% expected in 2027. Government measures to contain energy prices and living costs are helping to ease pressure on consumers.
ADB described Thailand’s financial system and financial institutions as highly stable, citing strong banking buffers and a low ratio of non-performing loans (NPLs), which would help the country withstand global economic volatility.
Technology exports support growth and investment
Chitchanok Annonjarn, an economist at ADB’s Thailand office, said the Thai economy expanded by 2.4% in the first half of 2026. Merchandise exports grew by 14.8% year on year, led by technology-related products benefiting from the global electronics and AI investment cycle.
The expansion was not unique to Thailand. The country was benefiting from its position in international supply chains alongside other Southeast Asian economies, including Malaysia and Vietnam. Key export products included computers, electronic components, telecommunications equipment and machinery.
The benefits extended beyond exports into domestic investment. Private investment increased by 11.6% in the first half, led by spending on machinery, computer equipment and software.
Four risks to Thailand’s economic outlook
Anna Fink, ADB’s senior country economist, identified four major risks and challenges that could affect Thailand’s growth prospects.
The first is volatility in energy and transport costs. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine continue to keep oil, natural gas and shipping costs elevated.
The second is El Niño, which ADB expects to intensify towards the end of 2026, with more pronounced effects in 2027. The weather phenomenon could affect agricultural production and water supplies, putting upward pressure on food prices, including rice, sugar and palm oil.
The third is high household debt and an uneven, “K-shaped” recovery. Debt continues to constrain private consumption, while economic gains remain concentrated in high-technology industries. Thailand therefore needs to move up the value chain, improve workers’ skills and strengthen domestic business and supply-chain networks so that more value is retained within the economy.
The fourth is the government’s narrowing fiscal room. Fink said Thailand’s financial stability helped contain immediate concerns about public debt, but an increasing debt burden would leave less scope for future stimulus measures or assistance with living costs. ADB’s published report puts public debt at 66.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of June 2026.
The briefing also highlighted Fitch Ratings’ improved outlook for Thailand as a factor supporting investor sentiment and helping to prevent government borrowing costs from rising.
“The key fiscal challenge for Thailand is not the size of the budget, but the quality of government spending and how it can reach and support people while maintaining fiscal discipline,” Chitchanok said.
Three priorities for Thailand’s next stage of growth
Aaron Batten, ADB’s country director for Thailand, said the bank was preparing a country strategy centred on three priorities: private sector-led development, inclusive growth and regional leadership.
Private sector-led development would focus on attracting private capital and reducing project risks to accelerate investment in clean energy.
Inclusive growth would spread economic opportunities to the provinces and narrow inequalities between major cities and rural areas. Examples include upgrading the capabilities of five regional hospitals and developing a water-management plan for the Chao Phraya basin to provide long-term flood protection.
Regional leadership would support Thailand’s development as a leader in digital technology, AI and regional connectivity, as the country prepares to host Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meetings in 2028.
