Google, Temasek and Bain forecast Thai digital economy GMV of US$72 billion in 2026, up 19%
Google, Temasek and Bain forecast Thai digital economy GMV of US$72 billion in 2026, up 19%, with e-commerce contributing US$43 billion.
- Thailand's digital economy is projected to reach a gross merchandise value (GMV) of US$72 billion in 2026, representing a 19% growth.
- The report forecasts continued expansion, with the GMV expected to hit US$104 billion by 2030 and US$167 billion by 2035.
- E-commerce is the primary driver of this growth, projected to account for US$43 billion of the total GMV in 2026.
- The positive forecast is supported by strong digital foundations, supportive government policies, and widespread adoption of AI.
Thailand’s digital economy is forecast to reach US$72 billion, or approximately THB2.43 trillion, in gross merchandise value (GMV) in 2026, growing 19% despite economic challenges, according to the e-Conomy SEA 2026 report by Google, Temasek and Bain & Company.
The report projects that GMV will rise to US$104 billion by 2030 and US$167 billion by 2035, with compound annual growth of 10%.
Thailand’s established digital foundations and supportive government policies underpin the outlook. The national artificial intelligence (AI) strategy covers digital sovereignty, AI governance, the development of highly skilled workers and stronger long-term competitiveness.
E-commerce leads growth with US$43 billion in GMV
E-commerce remains Thailand’s largest digital business segment as platforms place greater emphasis on generating revenue and improving profitability. Their strategies include earning more from services and platform fees, alongside wider deployment of AI.
The report sets out the following sector estimates and projections:
E-commerce is projected to record compound annual growth of 10%, while ride-hailing and food delivery are forecast to expand at 12%, supported by market consolidation and a stronger focus on profitability.
Online travel is also benefiting from AI applications in destination marketing and online booking services.
Thailand records 31 million generative AI users
The report estimates that Thailand has 31 million generative AI users, equivalent to 63% of its working-age population, generating approximately 21 billion AI queries annually.
Thai users average about 2.7 AI sessions a week on the report’s consumer-use measure, the highest among the Southeast Asian markets studied. That measure excludes work, study and health-related activities.
Daily generative AI use reaches 22% of Thailand’s working-age population, placing the country second in the regional comparison.
The report’s consumer-token measure stands at 15 million tokens per generative AI user in Thailand, placing it joint third among the six markets compared. This measure covers tokens used by paid personal accounts and excludes enterprise usage.
Thai users turn to AI for practical tasks and information discovery, with roughly one-third of prompts concerning lifestyle topics. Work, education and online shopping are leading areas of use, followed by health and travel.
The report finds that 41% of consumer journeys begin on AI platforms. Some 75% of users express greater trust in AI than a year earlier, while more than 80% are willing to delegate purchasing decisions to AI agents. The findings also point to interest in delegating more complex tasks.
Thai accounts for 78% of AI conversations, highlighting the importance of language models that understand local language and context.
Rafael Scislowski, country manager of Google Thailand, highlighted the strength of both the digital economy and AI adoption, with individuals and businesses incorporating the technology into work and everyday life.
“Thailand has firmly reaffirmed its position as an AI leader in Southeast Asia, with digital economy gross merchandise value reaching US$72 billion and the region’s highest frequency of AI use, averaging nearly 2.7 times a week,” Scislowski said.
Google aims to work with the Thai government and local partners to turn growing user confidence into inclusive and sustainable economic growth.
Willy Chang, a partner at Bain & Company, pointed to Thailand’s widespread embrace of generative AI and its high frequency of everyday use. He linked that momentum to policies prioritising digital sovereignty, AI governance, highly skilled workers and domestic industry.
Chang stressed that business results, rather than adoption levels alone, would determine success. Companies that redesign their operations around AI have an opportunity to turn technology use into tangible returns.
Digital payments reach US$215 billion as lending grows 24%
Digital financial services continue to record double-digit growth, supported by payments, lending and insurance. The report measures these activities separately through transaction values, outstanding loans and insurance premiums.
Digital lending is the fastest-growing of these segments. Virtual bank licensing is expected to support expansion by enabling services for retail customers and small and medium-sized enterprises that remain underserved.
The insurance figures combine gross written premiums and annual premium equivalent. The report identifies new requirements for compulsory motor insurance policies to be issued electronically as a supporting factor.
Private funding totals US$200 million across 11 deals
Thailand recorded US$200 million in private funding across 11 completed deals in the first half of 2026.
The primary report identifies a digital financial services deal as a supporting factor during that period. Its discussion of data-centre funding refers to a deal in the second half of 2025.
The private-funding figures cover completed fundraising rounds. They exclude multibillion-dollar, long-term capital expenditure by global technology companies and data-centre providers to expand Thailand’s cloud and AI infrastructure.
Source: Bangkokbiznews
