Ekniti links S&P’s stable credit outlook to policy confidence

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas on Thursday (November 5) cited the stable credit outlooks assigned to Thailand by Fitch Ratings, Moody’s and S&P Global Ratings as a sign of confidence in the government’s economic policies.

S&P affirmed Thailand’s BBB+ sovereign credit rating and maintained its stable outlook on November 4, 2026, with strong external finances supporting the assessment despite projections of slower growth and rising net government debt. 

“The government will continue to pursue economic policies that deliver tangible results, including promoting investment in new industries, strengthening the country’s competitiveness and prioritising fiscal discipline,” Ekniti said.

“The aim is to reinforce investor confidence and lay the foundations for stable and sustainable economic growth.”

Ekniti’s remarks highlighted the government’s interpretation of the stable outlooks maintained by all three major rating agencies, while S&P’s assessment also identified continuing economic and fiscal pressures.

Strong external finances support the rating

Thailand’s substantial international reserves and position as a net external creditor remain important supports for its sovereign credit rating, according to the assessment.

S&P expects the current account to be broadly balanced in 2026 before returning to surpluses equivalent to approximately 2.1–2.4% of gross domestic product (GDP) from 2027 onwards.

The projected improvement reflects expectations that exports will expand in line with imports of intermediate goods, alongside a gradual normalisation of energy prices.

Growth forecast to ease to 2.3%

S&P forecasts economic growth of 2.3% in 2026, compared with 2.4% in 2025, as external risks and structural constraints weigh on activity. Government fiscal measures are expected to help cushion these pressures.

Real GDP growth is projected to average 2.4% annually between 2026 and 2029.

GDP per capita is expected to rise from approximately US$8,000 in 2024 to US$9,100 in 2026, partly reflecting the appreciation of the baht.

Net government debt projected to reach 47% of GDP

S&P expects the government’s net debt accumulation to amount to 4.2% of GDP in 2026 and average 3.5% annually over 2026–2029.

Net general government debt is consequently projected to increase from approximately 40% of GDP at the end of 2025 to 47% by 2029.

The government is expected to continue using fiscal policy to support economic growth and address external risks while maintaining strict fiscal discipline.

Infrastructure and technology investment remain priorities

S&P considers investment under Thailand’s reform plans and national strategy to remain a government priority, particularly the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) and transport infrastructure.

State-owned enterprise investment and public-private partnerships (PPPs) are expected to play a significant role in infrastructure development while easing part of the government’s investment expenditure burden.

Government measures include tax incentives for data centre investment and support for Thai businesses entering global artificial intelligence (AI) supply chains.

Further tax incentives encourage research and development and technology training within Thailand. Sustained implementation of these investment promotion policies is expected to strengthen the country’s competitiveness over the longer term.

Political stability matters for future rating assessments

S&P will continue to assess Thailand’s economic growth relative to countries at similar income levels, GDP per capita and the direction of fiscal policy, alongside domestic political stability.

Greater government stability is expected to support continuity in long-term economic policymaking and provide more flexibility in responding to short-term challenges.

These factors will remain important to Thailand’s credit assessment and could support a future sovereign rating upgrade.