Pardon a test of Yingluck's allegiance

With the government reviewing a petition spearheaded by the red shirts in 2009 to seek a royal pardon for her brother Thaksin, new PM Yingluck is obliged to make a tough decision which will show the true colour of her leadership.

Will she uphold the monarchy by keeping the King out of politics? Or will she bend the rules in order to rescue Thaksin despite adverse implications that may undermine the monarchy?

The anti-Thaksin camp got it all wrong in attacking the pardon petition as a violation of provisions of the Criminal Procedural Code in relation to applicants who seek royal clemency.

Thaksin and his red-shirt supporters wanted to bypass the code and seek the King's direct intervention.

Under the code, Thaksin or his members of his immediate family would have to initiate the petition. He would also have show remorse and actually serve time - even for one day - before qualifying for a pardon.

Thaksin and his family members deliberately stayed out the petitioning process in order to avoid having to comply with the code - showing remorse and spending time in jail.

The red shirts cited their citizenship as grounds for petitioning the King on Thaksin's behalf.

If the reds put forward just their legal arguments for a pardon for Thaksin, then they would have every reason to expect their petition being forwarded to the King's attention. There is no justification to block a petition from Thai citizens.

But the reds undermined their petition by attacking the 2006 coup as inflicting injustice on Thaksin. In an unprecedented move, all 29 permanent secretaries and those equivalent in rank and seniority issued a statement condemning the content of the petition as politicisng the monarchy.

The statement pointed out that the monarchy would be mired by politics because of the wording in the petition - pardon or no pardon, the King would be seen as siding with either the coup or Thaksin.

All 29 co-signers were appointed by three governments led by Thaksin, Surayud Chulanont, Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat. Three of the 29 are Budget Bureau director Bandhoon Supakavanich, who is presently secretary general to Yingluck, permanent secretary for Justice Kittipong Kittyarak and Cabinet secretary general Ampon Kittiampon.

After almost two years of verifying the signatures of 2 million people, the petition is now ready for the government to make recommendations.

Kittipong is in charge of advising Justice Minister Pracha Promnok on his report to the Cabinet. Ampon is responsible for providing pertinent opinions on Pracha's report. And Bandhoon will play a critical role in mapping out options for Yingluck.

Possible scenarios faced by Yingluck include forwarding the petition for the King's attention. But the PM might risk being seen as passing a hot political potato to the monarch. Her government might face street protests sooner than expected.

Under this scenario, the Privy Council, with new councillor Chamras Kemacharu who has no past history with Thaksin, will likely urge the King to drop the petition on grounds it lacks the mandate for a pardon to be granted without the government to countersign the royal command.

The next scenario is for Yingluck to cite the petition as grounds for her government to intervene to issue a royal decree granting a pardon for Thaksin. This would please the reds, but risks angering the rest of the populace and failing to solve many other legal issues that Thaksin faces since the clemency would apply of just one of many legal cases.

The final scenario is for Yingluck to drop the petition on grounds for offending the monarchy and then try to rescue Thaksin via Parliament.