Will return of 111 upset balance at Pheu Thai?
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An important event on this year's political calendar is the end of a five-year ban on 111 former executives of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai Party in May.
Many of the politicians are expected to make a comeback and make waves in the political arena.Some political observers have voiced concern that a political comeback by the “Thai Rak Thai 111” could lead to another round of turmoil. But some politicians in the group have tried to allay such fears, saying they did not think the impact would be severe, as many have opted to leave politics for good.
Suranand Vejjajiva, a former TRT executive who is one of the banned 111, said five years was “rather a long time” and that while many of the 111 had decided to stay out of politics, some were likely to work for the Pheu Thai-led government.
Anutin Chanweerakul, another sidelined politician, did not think the landscape would be redrawn after the end of the ban in May. He expected only 20 or so of the 111 would stage a comeback and said anxiety over possible volatility was unwarranted, as most of the 111 might not re-enter politics.
On May 30, 2007, the post-coup Constitution Tribunal ordered the dissolution of the Thai Rak Thai Party for electoral fraud and prohibited its 111 executives – including former party leader Thaksin Shinawatra – from engaging in political activities for five years.
Many of those banned have had roles behind the scenes. Some serve as advisers to the ruling Pheu Thai Party, particularly the government of Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin’s sister. These include Suranand, Chaturon Chaisang, Pongthep Thepkanchana, Sudarat Keyuraphan, Varathep Ratanakorn, Chaiyos Sasomsap, Pongsak Raktapongpisarn, Prommin Lertsuridej and Phumtham Wechayachai.
Other heavyweights in this group are now in other parties – both in the coalition and opposition camps. They include Anutin, Newin Chidchob, Sora-at Klinpratoom and Somsak Thepsuthin of the Bhum Jai Thai Party; Suwat Liptapanlop, Preecha Laohapongchana and Pinij Charusombat of the Ruam Chart Pattana Party; and Sonthaya Khunplome in the Palang Chon Party.
Other heavyweights in this group are now in other parties – both in the coalition and opposition camps. They include Anutin, Newin Chidchob, Sora-at Klinpratoom and Somsak Thepsuthin of the Bhum Jai Thai Party; Suwat Liptapanlop, Preecha Laohapongchana and Pinij Charusombat of the Ruam Chart Pattana Party; and Sonthaya Khunplome in the Palang Chon Party.
A source in the 111 group said it was likely some would be appointed to the Yingluck Cabinet.
“Many people in the group of 111 want to help with political work, and some of them wanted to become Cabinet members, particularly those working for the government. The big boss will make his decision about this,” said the source, referring to Thaksin.
It was likely the “big boss” may appoint some of Yingluck’s advisers to Cabinet to help improve her government’s image and pave the way for Pheu Thai to remain in power for a long time.
However, appointing sidelined heavyweights to the Cabinet would risk infighting in Pheu Thai – as those replaced and their supporters would not be happy. The red-shirt movement, which is a major backer of Pheu Thai, would be pushed further away from the inner circle of power, and red-shirt leaders could cause waves that shake the government.
Chaturon recently admitted there were attempts from within Pheu Thai – particularly those who may be directly affected – to prevent the sidelined politicians from being appointed to the Cabinet. While the 111 have been away, less-senior politicians have gained status and do not want to be overshadowed by the heavyweights.
Thaksin will have to do his best to retain a balance within the ruling party, which is a key component of the government led by his sister. The Yingluck government’s stability relies not only on Pheu Thai MPs, but also on many of the sidelined heavyweights and the red shirts.
When necessary, he may also need to summon the help of former Thai Rak Thai executives now in other political parties. Although they are not part of Pheu Thai, it does not mean ties with Thaksin are severed.
Suwat, Preecha, Pinij and Sonthaya can undoubtedly work with the big boss. Somsak’s faction in Bhum Jai Thai has made it clear they want to work with Pheu Thai.
Newin’s faction in Bhum Jai Thai may appear to be focusing on its role in the opposition, but it is ready to join a Pheu Thai-led coalition for the sake of reconciliation.
There are no real friends or permanent foes in politics – at least in Thai politics. It depends on Thaksin whether he wants to work with Bhum Jai Thai – whose members are regarded by Thaksin’s supporters as “traitors” for joining the rival Democrat Party to form the previous government.
Within Bhum Jai Thai, Anutin and his father Chaovarat – who are close to Thaksin – are likely to be instrumental in any detente, should the big boss desire it.
Newin, believed to be pulling the strings behind Bhum Jai Thai, is expected to make a comeback and become party leader – the position now being held by Chaovarat.
“It seems Newin has decided that he should play the reconciliation card in order to reduce tension between him and Thaksin,” said the source from the group of 111. “Bhum Jai Thai is ready to play this card. It submitted a draft law on reconciliation for parliamentary debate last year.”
