The uncertainty persists because the ruling Pheu Thai Party appears to lack a firm stand on who charter writers should be, what charter amendments should entail, and procedures related to a public hearing and a referendum vote.
Although the ruling party has set the charter change as a top priority, the country is no closer to activating a rewrite than six months previously, when Pheu Thai came to power.
Many Pheu Thai supporters are blaming the opposition for trying to block the change. But their rivals may not be the sole culprits. Judging by remarks by Pheu Thai MPs and red-shirt leaders, there are differing views within the alliance that may be posing a hindrance.
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung have made it clear the government will not spearhead changes to the charter at this juncture.
The two want to wait for an opportune moment in a bid to avoid a possible resumption of street protests by the yellow shirts. Chalerm has argued against a hasty push for charter change before ensuring that public sentiment is in the government’s favour.
A large number of Pheu Thai MPs, the red shirts and proponents of charter amendments beg to differ. They view amending the charter as urgent and a way to maintain loyalty and popularity.
Yingluck, Chalerm and other Pheu Thai bigwigs do not object to a popular campaign to kick-start charter change. But coalition MPs and the red shirts subscribe to differing formulas, hence it appears their campaign has not got off the drawing board.
Charter amendments have dominated headlines for months. There is, however, no tangible progress to match the rhetoric.
As long as coalition lawmakers and the red shirts cannot reach a consensus on how to proceed, charter change may remain just big talk without corresponding action.
The coalition and the red shirts appear to support the formation of a Constitution Drafting Assembly to take charge of charter amendments. But the two sides omit to mention their differences over what the CDA should look like.
Certain cliques in Pheu Thai want Parliament to elect CDA members in order to exert the coalition’s influence, while factions within the red-shirt movement have pushed for CDA seats to be allocated via a direct vote.
Pheu Thai wants to dominate the appointment of core charter writers, either as part of the drafting assembly or an independent panel, while the reds aspire to nominate charter writers from their ilk. They also have different goals. Pheu Thai is pushing for limited change, while the reds seek to overhaul the political system.
The ruling party and its red allies have contrasting ideas on detailed arrangements for public hearings and a referendum on the charter draft.
On Sunday, red-shirt leader Natthawut Saikua made his first public speech in the wake of his appointment as deputy agriculture minister.
Natthawut raised two interesting points. The first was that he saw no sign of reconciliation. The second was the root cause of the political struggle was about the powers-that-be refusing to allow the people to exercise their power.
In Natthawut’s view, Thailand is still not a full-blown democracy because power does not belong to the people yet. But Pheu Thai is now in power. So was he making a veiled attack on Pheu Thai for not empowering the people?
This raises questions on what may happen if Pheu Thai decides to downplay the red shirts in the process to rewrite the charter –would that cause the alliance to sour?