Yingluck has nothing to lose with charter poll
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Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra made a wise choice recently in opting for a referendum to precede the rewriting of the Constitution.
Based on her remarks, Yingluck last week convinced her brother Thaksin to agree to the referendum in order to settle the political divide over charter change.
Today the coalition parties will meet and finalise a joint stand on amending the charter.
Critics of the government should look again at the prime minister whom many see as a political greenhorn. The inexperienced leader has proved to be very cunning indeed.
By opting for a referendum, Yingluck sends a clear signal she is willing to take a risk in facing her opponents on their own turf.
The idea for a referendum came from law professor Surapon Nitikraipot, seen as an ally of the yellow shirts.
In the face of an impasse on charter amendments between the red and yellow shirts, Surapon contends that the people should be consulted ahead of any changes to the charter they endorsed through the 2007 referendum.
At the July inquiry of the Constitution Court, he made a passionate argument to justify the referendum. The high court subsequently adopted his view in its verdict.
Pheu Thai legal adviser Bhokin Bhalakula strongly opposed Surapon’s view but abruptly changed his stand after a meeting with Yingluck last week.
According to government insiders, Yingluck sees the referendum as the only way to avoid two doom scenarios – a potential street fight between red and yellow mobs and the violent confrontation between yellow protesters and anti-riot forces.
Should the situation spiral out of control, there would be no foolproof method to prevent tragic loss of life. As the government has just established a precedent in prosecuting the Democrats, Yingluck may be forced to taste her own medicine if the yellow protesters were to be shot dead by police.
The referendum is, therefore, unavoidable in order to pacify the yellow shirts from resuming street protests.
When the junta organised the vote for the endorsement of the Constitution, it mobilised all state agencies via the Internal Security Operations Command to drum up support. At the time the red shirts campaigned hard to oppose the coup-sponsored charter draft but failed to defeat it.
Despite the might of the state, the red shirts from the Northeast rejected the charter draft. And despite the anti-coup campaign, the yellow shirts from the South, the lower North and parts of the Central Region, combined their votes to promulgate the 2007 Constitution.
The upcoming referendum on charter change will likely see a neck-and-neck race to sway the voting outcome.
There is no telling whether the government can muster votes in its strongholds in the upper North and the Northeast to overtake the opposition movement.
From this month to March, the government plans to launch a publicity blitz by organising a series of public dialogues to try and justify charter change.
Parliament is expected to push for a passage of the referendum law. If things go according to plan, the vote on whether to amend the charter should take place by the middle of next year.
Uncertain as the referendum outcome might be, Yingluck will still plough on with it because she has nothing to lose and everything to gain.
If the government is defeated, then it will just keep the Constitution and amend it provision by provision. Should it win the referendum vote, then it will have the mandate to silence the yellow shirts and overhaul the charter.
