Voting on constitution is becoming a tricky problem

So far, it’s been unclear whether or not a referendum will be held – because both the government and concerned agencies are still uncertain on the subject. 

Until recently, the Constitution Drafting Committee (CDC)’s chairman and fellow drafters were insisting that a national referendum be put on the table, as it would help legitimise the charter and also allow the drafters to show their sincerity. 

The CDC chairman reasoned that the 1997 Constitution was known as the people’s charter and the 2007 Constitution also underwent a referendum, so why not put the next one through a public vote?

However, political observers believe that if a referendum is held, it would give the anti-junta crowd an opportunity to attack those in power directly, regardless of how well the charter’s content is drafted. 

Also, those who support the coup will approve the charter regardless of its content. Therefore, if a referendum is held, it will project more about how much the NCPO-led government is favoured or disfavoured, instead of the vote focusing on the charter. 

In the worst-case scenario, if the public rejects the charter, then the CDC and the National Reform Council (NRC) would have to be abolished and a new set of reformers and drafters will have to be appointed. So, if the charter-drafting process returns to square one, then the NCPO and the junta will have to stay at least another year. 

One of the aspects of the charter that could determine its success is the so-called “Mixed-Member Proportional” (MMP) election system.

The CDC said they are trying to block the chance of a single party dominating the Parliament, so smaller parties can be given the opportunity to join a coalition government. Also, the MMP system is aimed at making every vote count. 

However, cutting out the chance of one party dominating the Parliament may ignite the anger of those who want to see their favourite party in power. Though on the other hand, those who wish to see smaller parties rise will certainly have a reason to adopt the new charter. 

Nonetheless, a referendum is necessary to see which way things pan out, because otherwise, it will give people a chance to question the legitimacy of the charter further. 

In the end though, the real challenge and pressure will be on the junta and the NCPO to come up with the best solution, and most importantly, ensure that every side accepts their measures.