NESDB slashes growth forecast
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The Office of National Economic and Social Development Board today announced the downward revision in the Thai economic growth forecast, citing poor exports as the main reason.
The growth forecast is cut from 3.5-4.5 per cent to 3-4 per cent for this year, while inflation is expected to be minus 0.3 per cent or expand by only 0.7 per cent.
It explained that Thailand's exports have not benefited from the recovery in global economy. Though, it cited that the Bank of Thailand's two rate cuts support economic growth, pushing downward the dollar/baht exchange rate which should boost exports from the second quarter onwards.
The Thai economy this year would be supported by public spending, a recovery in private consumption and investment, the continued growth in tourist arrivals, the improvement in industrial production, and low oil prices.
Yet, the weakening euro and Japanese yen against US dollar as well as declining agricultural commodity prices would keep pressuring exports, private demand and the overall economic growth. The economic recovery this year, after the 0.7 per cent growth last year, would not be spreading to all sectors of the Thai economy.
The NESDB expects Thailand to post only 0.2 per cent growth in exports in 2015, while household consumption would expand by 2.3 per cent. The current account surplus for this year is expected to hit 3.9 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).
