Why the NRC will support the draft constitution

Now, there seems to be growing certainty that the draft charter will get approval from the NRC. A simple reason is that the draft has met the “desires” of the National Council for Peace and Order.

The NCPO wants a constitution that would not cause its coup in May last year to be “wasted”, and it wants Thai politics to be completely changed from the period before the military’s power seizure.

First, the electoral system will be altered, with adoption of a mixed voting system unique to Thailand. The ceiling number of MPs will be based on the votes each political party wins. As a result, there would be only a slim chance of any political party winning a complete majority in the House of Representatives. This would almost certainly result in coalition government, with much bargaining among the partners. And political instability would be inevitable.

Another point that could please the powers-that-be is a clause that allows a non-elected person to become prime minister. Critics say this points to the “undemocratic” side of this new constitution. They say this is preparation for someone to return to political power without having to contest an election.

With those clauses included in the new constitution, it may be heading for a unity government involving the country’s two largest political parties – Pheu Thai and Democrat. And a non-elected “neutral person” would be sought to head their coalition government.

Some politicians have said the new electoral system is “unnatural” as the voting would lead to no winning party. Also, campaign promises would not be put into practice as the main coalition partners would be unable to settle their differences.

Moreover, the present government will be empowered to nominate the first set of appointed senators under the new constitution. Appointed senators will outnumber elected ones. Critics say the new charter is designed to allow non-elected parliamentarians to control public-office holders who have been elected. They allege that this is a plot by the current administration to retain its power through the Senate.

The point that may please the powers-that-be the most is a proposed National Strategic Reform and Reconciliation Commission (NSRRC) that also would include a number of military commanders. Some influential figures are expected to join this panel too.

According to the new charter, the panel’s main duty is to push for national reform. But it also has the power to control a new government so that it does not stray away from the path preferred by the NCPO and the current administration. The NSRRC will have the power to tell a new government to follow the new charter’s reform guidelines. As a result, this will curb the new government’s freedom to make decisions about running the country.

Another point of concern for critics involves the power to deal with political crisis or conflict during a post-election government.

The chairman of the NSRRC would be given the power as if he were the “supreme leader”. 

Under the new charter, any order or decision by the panel or its chairman is considered final, legal and constitutional. This is like granting amnesty to the panel in advance.

For critics, this constitutional provision is like certifying a future coup. They also point out that the powerful panel would consist mostly of NCPO members, who staged the coup in May last year.

Moreover, the draft constitution allows the NCPO to retain its power under the post-coup provisional charter until a new government is formed. The NCPO chief, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, is empowered to retain his authority under Article 44 of the interim charter even after the new constitution is promulgated.

With the NCPO’s benefits being served, there is no reason the NCPO-appointed NRC would reject the draft constitution. But the powers-that-be may have to keep their fingers crossed during the national referendum on the draft.