PATA expects $806 billion in annual tourism revenue by 2016

In its “Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2017-2021” report released this week, PATA said most visitors to Asia this year will originate from China in Asia and the United States and Mexico in the Americas.
“Greater China – China, Taipei, Hong Kong and Macao – is expected to generate more than 261 million international arrivals to the 39 Asia-Pacific destinations covered in this report, an annual growth rate of 7.9 per cent year-on-year and an incremental increase in absolute volume of over 19 million arrivals.”
While annual percentage growth from Greater China into Asia will expand by a little under the average, Asian destinations will capture 95 per cent of the volume increase between 2016 and 2017, the report forecast. 
Arrivals from Europe and Africa will each grow by 3.5 per cent in 2017 year-on-year. While Africa is expected to generate just over three million arrivals in total this year, Europe will generate around 67.7 million.
“From within the European origin-markets, the Russian Federation is expected to deliver the largest volume of additional arrivals into Asia-Pacific in 2017, adding more than 373,000 between 2016 and 2017 and doubling its collective inbound count to almost five million in 2017. 
“The United Kingdom and Germany, however, remain the principal generators of arrivals from Europe, delivering 14.9 million and 11.3 million arrivals, respectively, in 2017. France will deliver 7.1 million.
“Australia is by far the largest generator of international arrivals from the Pacific in 2017, delivering more than 12 million, close to 620,000 more than in 2016.”
By 2021, PATA said, Greater China will still be generating the largest number international arrivals to Asia-Pacific destinations. Mainland China will generate 164.6 million and Hong Kong 131.6 million arrivals that year. They will be followed by the US (47.9 million) and South Korea (29.7 million). Canada will rank fifth as an origin market, generating 25.4 million arrivals in 2021.
The strongest growth in additional arrivals between 2016 and 2021 will come from – in order of volume increase – China, Hong Kong, South Korea, the US and Russia. 
“Together these five origin markets will deliver 383 million arrivals to Asia-Pacific destinations in 2021, an increase of more than 112 million over 2016.”
Arrivals from the Americas are expected to expand with an Average Annual Growth Rate (AAGR) of 2.3 percent per annum, between 2016 and 2021, while Europe will grow by 3.1 per cent per annum. While these rates are lower than the overall AAGR of 5 per cent, they nevertheless contribute to a substantial volume of arrivals, generating 116 million and 76 million arrivals respectively in 2021.
These lower-than-average AAGRs, however, mean that in relative terms the share of foreign arrivals will decline from 17.5 to 15 per cent in the case of the Americas and from 11 to 10.2 per cent in the case of Europe.
For the 24 destinations for which revenue data are available, total receipts from international tourism will increase from US$692.4 billion in 2016 to $729.2 billion in 2017 and $806 billion by 2021.
While destinations in the Americas held a 42.4-per-cent share of tourism receipts from among these 24 destinations, that performance will drop to 41.7 per cent in 2017 and then 39.1 per cent by 2021. Asia, on the other hand, can expect an increase from $372.7 billion to $398.7 billion between 2016 and 2017 and to $511.9 billion by 2021.