Philippines corporate sector upbeat

In a research note issued after conducting a regional road show, the oldest foreign bank in the Philippines said 74.5 per cent of its top local clients expected their businesses to do better in 2013 than last year. 

Only 6.1 per cent of local respondents thought that their businesses could do worse in 2013, based on a February 5 study published by Stanchart.

Meanwhile, only 44 per cent of top-tier clients in Singapore expected their businesses to do better this year while other regional levels were also much lower than that of the Philippines, standing at 41 per cent in Kuala Lumpur, 44 per cent in Bangkok and 46 per cent in Jakarta.

“This is particularly bullish, considering the Philippines registered 6.6-per cent growth in 2013, much higher than the 10-year average of 5.2 per cent,” the research said.

“The degree of optimism was surprisingly strong. We have been highlighting the Philippines as an economic outperformer in Asia, but hearing the views on the ground, we were starting to look relatively bearish compared with local sentiment,” the research said.

Most clients expected the Philippine peso to appreciate relative to the US dollar in 2013, which the British bank said was in line with its ‘Overweight’ recommendation on the local currency. ‘Overweight’ is a recommendation to load up on a particular asset or security in excess of a benchmark index.

The research said there were more mixed results when respondents were asked about the primary market of concern in 2013. A majority (54.5 per cent) still saw Europe as the primary region of concern this year, while the United States received a sizeable amount of attention as well (36.4 per cent). The resurgence of China was of concern to only 9.1 per cent of the respondents, while there were no respondents who were worried about the Philippine economy.

“We believe this reflects the Philippines’ relative insulation against external cycles, along with strong growth prospects that have alleviated domestic concerns,” the bank said.

The report said certain clients felt the biggest challenge was to match last year’s revenue trend, with 43 per cent concerned about sustaining business revenue growth. Other clients were concerned about managing foreign exchange and interest rate risks (26 per cent) and regulatory/policy (22 per cent). “We believe that this is attributable to the policy changes – such as on special deposit rates and taxation – in response to the capital inflows to the Philippines,” the research said.

By client category, Stanchart said financial institution clients were particularly more bullish on the peso and marginally less optimistic on the economy. Asked about their primary market of concern in 2013, financial institutions were more concerned about Europe while corporate clients were more concerned about the US.