Peace agreement 'may take 5 to 10 years'

 

Representatives from the government and armed ethnic groups expected the signing of the nationwide ceasefire to take place this year, prior to the elections next year. Meanwhile, the two sides are preparing the framework for political dialogue at meetings between the government, armed ethnic groups and political parties.

"We expect to complete the framework [for political dialogue] by the end of 2014," Aung Naing Oo said at the August 11 meeting.

"In January or February 2015, the political dialogue might be able to begin. So, we can't say when the signing of the Union Peace Agreement will take place. Perhaps, it may take at least five years to 10 years, but this is just our estimate."

Although it is difficult to say when the Union Peace Agreement will be signed, it may not need five years if there is good progress in political dialogue, according to Dr Salai Hlyan Hmone, a member of the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team, which represents armed ethnic groups.

"For the Union Peace Agreement, we must first sign the nationwide ceasefire. After that, we will engage in political dialogue. Based on the result of political dialogue, the Union Peace Agreement will be signed. This is our proposal. However, it is difficult to say how long it will take. If the discussions progress properly, it won't take that long," he said.

"We must seek agreements. Some points might be able to implement immediately but some not. For the former, we must act immediately. For the latter, we need long-term plans," said Aye Thar Aung, leader of the Arakan National Party.

While on his visit to Myanmar last weekend, US Secretary of State John Kerry said the end of the civil war is a major challenge for Myanmar to overcome, before the country can reap its full potential.

A nationwide ceasefire is the first step towards the Union peace agreement. The government and armed ethnic groups started discussions on a nationwide ceasefire agreement in November 2013. It was followed by more discussions in both Myanmar and Thailand. In May, it was reported that the second draft was completed, leading to optimism that under the prevailing circumstances, the nationwide ceasefire draft could be signed soon. Yet, the potential signing dates have been delayed, from May to August. Now, with both sides meeting against on August 15 and 16, the date has apparently been pushed forward.

They have already reached an agreement on 72 of 103 points.

The second draft prepared by the government and the ethnic groups states that political dialogue must commence within 60 days of signing of the agreement, and the government, armed ethnic groups and political parties must be involved in it.

Political dialogue is aimed at overcoming differences in political, social, cultural and religious issues, and creating a system for discussions to seek solutions.

The peace process roadmap includes singing of a nationwide ceasefire and its implementation, creating a political dialogue framework, implementing the dialogue and realising the Union Peace Agreement, Aung Naing Oo said.

In June, according to the state-owned broadcaster MRTV, Karen National Union chairman Saw Mu Too Sayphoe had a discussion with President Thein Sein who said that political dialogue would follow a ceasefire. Reaching a ceasefire agreement is the most important step towards peace, he said, adding that a solution would be found through patience and perseverance.