Asean could play crucial role in easing tensions in Korean peninsula: academics

“Asean could play the role of facilitator since it does not have interests to the same extent as other countries in the Northeast region like China, South Korea and Japan,” said Lonny Carlile, director of the Center for Japanese Study at the university.

Asean has a track record of bringing North Korea into the international community after it included Pyongyang in the Asean Region Forum (ARF) in 2000, he said.

Established in 1994, the ARF is a forum for political and security consultation – with 27 members including superpowers such as the United States, China and Russia – which meet annually during Asean ministerial meetings to exchange views on regional and global matters.

The Korean peninsula was in the spotlight again after North Korean fired missile tests, prompted a strong reaction from the US. Diplomatic efforts were made to arrive at a peaceful solution, while the Asean foreign ministers issued a statement to voice “grave concern” and Pyongyang reportedly wrote a letter to the group asking for support.

The US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, in a meeting with Asean ministers last week, urged the group to put more effort into enforcing United Nations resolutions against North Korea.

Scholars of the School of Pacific and Asian Studies at the university, in a discussion with Asean journalists, said that multilateral talks could be an option to end the tension, but none of them felt that the resumption of sixparty talks would produce good results.

“The multilateral talk could happen but with limited numbers participating, such as having only the two Koreas, China and the US,” said Eric Harwit of Center for Chinese Studies. The sixparty talks, involving the two Koreas, the US, China, Japan and Russia since 2003, have not managed to end or even delay Pyongyang’s nuclear programme, he said. “Sometimes a party like Japan generally might not want nuclear [capability] in North Korea, but it brought other issues such as the abduction of Japanese citizens during 1980s and 1990s into the talks,” Harwit said.

China was leaking signals that it wanted to start another round of talks, said Reginald Yinwang Kwok, a professor at Asian Studies Program. “It was China that started six-party talks and it has been the chair of the talks, but nothing has become of it,” he said.

While US President Donald Trump expected China to exercise its influence over Pyongyang, Herwit, an expert on China affairs, said leaders in Beijing might not want to push North Korea.

China has many ways to put pressure on North Korea, since 95 per cent of its oil and gas supply comes from China, but Beijing does not want to use that approach. The message from Pyongyang last week was that it would be unhappy if China agreed with the US to apply more pressure, he said.

“The bottom line is that no matter what China does, North Korea will not give up the nuclear programme and the pressure could destabilise the region as well as the regime in Pyongyang,” Harwit said. “A missile also could be used against China. So I’m not so optimistic that China wants to do on this.”

Blockades and sanctions would not defuse North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, said Lee Sanghyop, Director of the Center for Korean Studies. Sanctions would affect ordinary people, rather than the nuclear programme, he said. “North Korea would not give up its nuclear ambitions even if many people there were to die,” he said.

Harwit said that a possible solution could be reached if all parties, particularly the US, used quiet diplomacy to engage with Pyongyang leaders and incline them towards a peaceful solution. North Korea wants have recognition and a peace pact with Washington, he said.