My money is on Djokovic, Kvitova at Aussie Open

It seems like yesterday when Novak Djokovic held the trophy before swatting his opponents like flies the rest of the year and Kim Clijsters dashing the dreams of Asia’s big hope Li Na in the Australian Open final.

The pundits still put their money on the Serbian emerging top at the Melbourne Park, underlined by his solid 70-6 win-loss record in the previous season highlighted by the Australian Open, Wimbledon and US Open trophies.

Grand Slam champions such as Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, as well as contenders like Andy Murray and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga were subdued by the in-form Serbian who collected 10 titles last year. Djokovic’s 2011 would have ended on a high note with a victory in the ATP World Tour Finals in London but the script did not end as perceived as he was not completely healed from a back injury.

Seemingly the only obstacle to his title defence campaign this fortnight will be his fitness. Djokovic’s only warm-up tournament for the season was an exhibition event in Abu Dhabi at the end of December but he appeared fine, winning the event with wins over Gael Monfils, Federer and David Ferrer and dropping just a set en-route.

Taking a look at his section of the draw, the world No 1 must have been relieved to see no Federer-Nadal in his half. He will only meet either of the two in the final, provided that the duo live up to their seedings. However, only two men have the potential to cause damage to Djokovic: Canadian young gun Milos Raonic and fourth-ranked Murray.

At 25 in the world, Raonic was one of the fast improving players last year. He started at 156 in 2010 to reach 31st position in December 2011. His torpedo serves and net attack are the major weapons that will keep Djokovic out of the comfort zone should they confront in round four. The crown in Chennai, India, two weeks ago shows how dangerous this young fellow is.

Murray might have lost badly to Djokovic in the final 12 months ago but the Briton, in fact, was one of the few conquerors of the Serbian last year when he won in the Cincinnati final. Murray, who last year returned to Bangkok and won the Thailand Open, is labelled as one of the best players not to have won a Grand Slam title yet. He is well-equipped to trouble the world No 1. And if that’s the case in their likely semi-final showdown, the top seed will fail to reach his third straight Slam final since Wimbledon.

On the women’s side, favourites such as Clijsters and Serena Williams had to retire from their warm up matches in Brisbane due to injuries. Both tried to convince us they’re in good shape at a press conference yesterday but there are limits to fitness considering their age.

Let’s not forget that unlike other majors, the conditions in Melbourne are probably the toughest with heat, wind and rain alternating with one another in a day. As we all know, modern tennis requires great power and endurance. To retire during a match in the prelude to a Grand Slam event, for whatever reason, is not a good sign.

So, it’s better to focus on the ones with a realistic opportunity. Petra Kvitova, despite losing to Li Na last week in Sydney, is my first pick for this year’s women’s singles title. The Czech is one with the hardest ground-strokes and serves on the tour, which explain why she won at Wimbledon title and the season-ending Masters last year. She was also perfect in the recent Hopman Cup.

World No 3 Victoria Azarenka is my second pick for the title in Melbourne. The Belarussian has the potential to become a major winner and came close several times in the past. Furthermore, she just won the last warm-up event in Sydney.

Finally, my apologies to Caroline Wozniacki fans, including Rory McIlroy, for writing her off. The world No 1 is a really sweet and nice person but in my view she must work harder on her mental condition and commitment. No offence, but to go on a safari trip several hours before a match, even a friendly, doesn’t seem to be a wise choice for someone who wants to win a Grand Slam.